Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bengals vs. Falcons
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Hayden Hurst has posted a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 3.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
