Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+105/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-140) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson has put up far more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (92.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has accumulated many fewer receiving yards per game (56.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.4% to 62.4%.
- Diontae Johnson’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, totaling just 6.09 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last season.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) vs. WRs this year (62.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
