Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 9.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (77.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (85.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
Cons
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 26.0) to tight ends this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 4.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
