Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 9.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (77.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (85.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).

Cons

The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 26.0) to tight ends this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 4.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards