Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-110) after it opened @ 282.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Justin Herbert has been among the best passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 287.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Cons

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
304
Passing Yards