Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Commanders vs. Packers
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-131) after it opened @ 33.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to garner 5.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan’s 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 24.7.
- Robert Tonyan has compiled significantly more receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).
Cons
- The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
- Robert Tonyan has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 7.34 yards-per-target vs a 8.76 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
