Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Davante Adams has posted many fewer receiving yards per game (81.0) this year than he did last year (96.0).
- Davante Adams’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.3% to 59.6%.
- Davante Adams’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, averaging just 7.52 yards-per-target vs a 9.79 rate last year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against wide receivers this year, allowing 7.49 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards
97
Receiving Yards
