Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-139) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to garner 4.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (50.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (76.4%).
Noah Fant has posted far fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
Noah Fant’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 5.36 yards-per-target compared to a 7.41 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards