Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.6% run rate.
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to earn 18.3 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a more integral piece of his team’s running game this week (65.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.2% in games he has played).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Jamaal Williams has been among the weakest RBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 2.33 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
- The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles rank as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
