Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Clyde Edwards-Helaire from EV Insight

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards

Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 5.32 yards-per-carry compared to just 4.12 mark last year.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has done a better job at picking up extra ground yardage this season, notching 4.17 yards-after-contact vs a 2.39 rate last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this year (45.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (59.5%).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 89 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Rushing Yards