Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-110) after it opened @ 269.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.

Cons

Tom Brady’s throwing efficiency has declined this season, totaling a mere 6.51 yards-per-target vs a 7.57 mark last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
324
Passing Yards