College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-110) after it opened @ 279.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this game.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.9%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
