Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to total 16.9 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has earned 69.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.94 yards-per-carry.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends grade out as the 7th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
