Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 9.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- Courtland Sutton has compiled a whopping 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 125.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 7.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
