Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-120) after it opened @ 56.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to total 15.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Ezekiel Elliott has garnered 56.3% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
