Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.6 passes this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
Tom Brady has been among the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 319.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
303
Passing Yards