Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops and welcome to Las Vegas for the NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals! This will be the first time playing in Sin City for most players on either team. Until now, there have only been All-Star games or preseason games played in Las Vegas. The league has put together a big night of basketball with both games at the same arena in a double header on a brand new, special In-Season Tournament court.
Neutral-site basketball games are extremely rare and interesting to handicap because we don’t who will have the arena advantage. We also have to consider the possibility of the “Las Vegas flu,” which is the cousin of the “Miami flu” known for sapping players’ energy and causing poor performances. I did some social media handicapping earlier and although it looked like everyone behaved, you can never really be sure. Let’s dive into each game, see how things might play out, and what bets there are to make.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks
Current Line – Bucks –5.5, 257
My Projection – Bucks 128, Pacers 125
Key Injuries – None
These teams played each other Nov. 9, and although both teams were playing their second game in two nights and their third in four, points were plentiful. The total closed at 239.5, high for most NBA games, and it still went over with a final score of Pacers 126, Bucks 124. There was no Damian Lillard that night, and the spread closed Milwaukee -1 on the road. We’re looking at a spread of -5.5 Thursday, which makes sense when you adjust for Lillard playing and the neutral site. Thursday’s total is going to finish as the highest total of the year so far. The previous high was 252.5 Nov. 21 in a game of these Indiana Pacers against the Atlanta Hawks. My model agrees with the spread and likes the under, but I’m not sure I trust my projections as much as I would normally. A total of 257-plus is an outlier any way you look at it, and I don’t know if my numbers are as sharp at this extreme. I’m also worried that these games are too different from the regular season to use a model.
The style and pace in the knockout rounds have been much different even from other In-Season Tournament games. This makes the full game markets hard to attack, so I’m going to pass on the spread and total. If you like a side, I suggest you play that team’s team total over as well. Even at 257, I think this game does go over, just not strongly enough to bet it. Luckily there are a couple player props I like. It’s hard for the market to set a total as high as it is Thursday, and I think it’s even harder to set player prop totals high enough. Unders tend to be more profitable when betting player props, but not here. There are several good looks on overs tonight and be sure to get into the FTNBets Discord channel to see all those plays from all our great handicappers, but here are two I’m betting.
First is Tyrese Haliburton over 46.5 points, rebound, and assists combined and the alternate line of over 52.5 PRA with a small sprinkle on him to get a triple double. Haliburton is the Pacers’ offense. He is their best scorer and one of the NBA leaders in assists per game. Indiana plays at a torrid pace and even more so in these IST games. Milwaukee is happy to run with them and as I’ve said before has two of the worst defensive guards in the NBA, Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley. I expect Tyrese Haliburton to have a great night and fill up the stat sheet in every category. The second prop I like is over Bruce Brown’s rebound total. We can bet over 5.5 at +122 and 8+ at +500 which look like great numbers. The FTNBets SGP Tool has him projected for 6.46 boards, and my own number is even a little higher than that.
Bets
Tyrese Haliburton PRA Over 46.5 +100 (0.75U, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyrese Haliburton PRA Over 52.5 +270 (0.25U, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyrese Haliburton to Have a Triple-Double +3500 (0.25U, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bruce Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds +122 (0.75U, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bruce Brown 8+ Rebounds +500 (0.25U, DraftKings Sportsbook)
New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Lakers
Current Line – Lakers -2, 231
My Projection – Pelicans 115, Lakers 114
Key Injuries – LeBron James is questionable.
This is the first game played between these two teams this season. Besides a “schedule loss” to the Chicago Bulls, the Pelicans have looked scary good now that they’re healthy. Jose Alvarado and Herbert Jones are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and both are shooting the ball well. The group of CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson is one of, if not the best, top four group in the league. Trey Murphy just returned and is playing well enough to possibly force his way into the starting lineup. New Orleans has size, speed, shooting, great rim attackers and defensive ability throughout their roster.
The Lakers are also a very complete team, but they are not yet whole. Jarred Vanderbilt is back, but he only played 15 minutes in his first game, and we shouldn’t expect much more here. Lineups with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and Vanderbilt were the best lineups the Lakers had last season. Together, it’s a strong defensive core that can score with good shooting, great passing or attacking one-on-one. This should be an excellent game and I agree with the market that the spread should be small, but I do have New Orleans the small favorite. It’s not a big enough edge to bet the Pelicans, and it’s hard to know how to adjust the Lakers for this type of game.
James and Davis play better in more important games. Their usage and performance improve every year in the playoffs, and we’ve seen them play better in the IST so far. I think I might be underestimating that. Now, it pains me to have to say this next part, but I really do have to say it. Scott Foster is the lead official tonight and that’s generally a good thing of the Laker and LeBron. Do I think games are fixed? Absolutely not. Do I think the market and some bettors overact to trends in small datasets when it comes to referees? Absolutely. I do think it has an impact on the line and could be part of the reason the Lakers are favored tonight. No bets on the full game for me here, but I do have some props I like.
As I mentioned, LeBron’s usage and performance is markedly better in big games. He cruised over his points, rebounds and assists total for us last game even though the total was well under what we expected. I’ll also play him to have a triple double. He was just two rebounds shy of that last game. I think LeBron fills up the stat sheet again.
Bets
LeBron James PRA Over 44.5 +118 (0.75U, FanDuel Sportsbook)
LeBron James PRA Over 49.5 +265 (0.25, FanDuel Sportsbook)
LeBron James to Have a Triple Double +850 (0.5U, FanDuel Sportsbook)
