WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Week 4 of the NFL season starts with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Detroit Lions Thursday night. Both teams should benefit from the return of key offensive players in a battle for early-season supremacy in the NFC North.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate. You can find all our Week 4 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for the Thursday night matchup.
Week 4 Player Props
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions
(+106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
There are a handful of NFL players who find a way to weekly production regardless of the matchup. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of those special players.
Despite leaving the Lions game in Week 2 with an injury, St. Brown has remained the dominant force in the Detroit passing attack. Per our FTN Utilization Report, he has tallied over 28% of the team’s targets, over 29% of the Lions receptions, and over 33% of the Detroit passing yards. St. Brown has seen an average of nine targets per game this season and has at least nine targets in 14 of Detroit’s last 17 games.
The Lions passing attack ranks sixth per DVOA through three weeks. It will move the ball despite a strong Green Bay pass defense. Fellow wideout Josh Reynolds failed to record a target or reception in last Sunday’s win over Atlanta due to a nagging groin injury. St. Brown combined with rookie tight end Sam LaPorta for 17 of the Lions 22 passing targets, and there is no reason to expect that target share to drop on a short week.
We project St. Brown for 8.0 receptions, which equates to a 21% edge per our FTN Model.
Jordan Love Over 222.2 Passing Yards
(-118, Caesars)
The Packers cannot run the ball effectively.
Green Bay ranks a putrid 27th in rush offensive DVOA, and have been even worse without lead running back Aaron Jones, who is still listed as questionable for Thursday’s matchup. Detroit will bring one of the league’s stoutest run defenses to Green Bay, ranking fifth in fewest rushing yards allowed (72 per game) this season.
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love should have leading wideout Christian Watson back, giving him a solid trio of receivers with Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave is coming off an 8-target, 6-reception game, having quickly developed into a reliable NFL receiver, very comparable to LaPorta. Even if Jones plays, I can’t see the Packers moving the ball effectively on the ground. Love has eclipsed this number in two of his three games this season, and if they keep this game competitive (1.5-point spread), I don’t see how Love does not beat this number.
