NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.
- The leading projections forecast David Montgomery to earn 16.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
- David Montgomery has picked up 51.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (76th percentile).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-most yards in football (139 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The model projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
