College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
The Buffalo Bills are again a Super Bowl contender, balancing a high-powered offense with one of the NFL’s best defenses. While today’s best offensive attacks are predicated on high-volume passing, the importance of a quality RB1 still remains. This year, Buffalo will give that role to last year’s second-round pick, James Cook.
Cook has a great combination of elite 4.42 speed and high-level elusiveness. However, quarterback Josh Allen’s rushing ability and a crowded depth chart are legitimate obstacles to Cook’s season-long productino. While it’s clear Cook will be the lead running back in the Bills offense, will he find a way to beat his rushing yardage season-long prop?
Fortunately, FTN’s Mike Randle has the answer.
James Cook Over 650.5 Rushing Yards
(-115, Caesars)
I am buying James Cook as the clear lead running back in Buffalo, despite the depth chart competition. Per FTN Data, Cook was one of the most efficient RBs in the league last season, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. His rushing efficiency was only exceeded by quarterbacks (and whatever Taysom Hill is).
He only received 89 rushing attempts while sharing carries (177) with Devin Singletary, who is now with the Texans. Buffalo has Damien Harris and Latavius Murray but will be without Nyheim Hines the entire season. Cook should see the majority of backfield touches, giving him more than enough volume to crest this total.
His efficiency will certainly drop with more opportunities, but we project him for 874.4 rushing yards at a reasonable 4.99 YPC. Cook has been featured with the starters throughout the preseason, and just needs to absorb Singletary’s usage to crest this total. In their first preseason game against Indianapolis, it was also good to see Cook get this touch near the goal line.
Cook totaled only 13 red zone rushes last season, with Singletary ranking 17th among all running backs with 34. Could Harris steal some of those carries? Of course. But as long as Cook produces, he will certainly see enough of those touches to help bolster his rushing total.
I am all-in on James Cook as a fantasy RB1 this year, and project a floor of 700 rushing yards even with a few missed games due to injury. I’m grabbing the over on this rushing yardage prop and would bet it up to 700.5 rushing yards.
