WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
The month of July officially signals the NFL season is coming fast. Training camp will start for rookies in just one week, with veterans reporting shortly after. The NFL Hall of Fame Game begins in just three weeks, which means it’s the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.
The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the AFC East.
(All my lines are what I saw as I wrote it. They might not match the odds you find when you read the article.)
NFL Player Futures for 2023: AFC East
Aaron Rodgers 3,975.5 Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers has changed teams for the first time in his career after spending the last 18 years in Green Bay. He comes to a New York Jets team with fantastic receiving weapons, including reigning AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. He will compete in a division with two other explosive offenses in Miami and Buffalo and has the comfort of working with his good friend as offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett. While everything seems to align for a huge season from Rodgers, I am fading his total receiving yardage prop on Caesars Sportsbook.
Using our FTN Pace & Playcalling Tool, let’s take a look at the pace in which the Green Bay Packers offense played during the three seasons with Hackett and Rodgers together.
Green Bay was fifth slowest and twice overall slowest in offensive team pace during those three years. Rodgers is now 39 years old and changing teams for the first time in his career. His championship window is certainly closing, which means the Jets have every reason to play the exact way Rodgers is most comfortable.
That is slow.
The fewer the plays, the fewer the opportunities to gain yardage. This is a Jets team with a strong defense and currently the biggest Super Bowl champion liability for sportsbooks. That provides little reason to believe the Jets will also experience an overwhelming amount of negative gamescripts.
Rodgers has thrown for 4,002 or fewer yards in three of his past four seasons, including just 3,695 in 17 games last year. I project high efficiency but a lower yardage total for the four-time NFL MVP. This prop has almost a 200-yard range from 3,800.5 yards on FanDuel to the high mark on Caesars.
I’m backing the under on Rodgers’ 3,975.5 passing yardage total at Caesars.
The Pick
Aaron Rodgers Under 3,975.5 Passing Yards (-115, Caesars)
Mac Jones 18.5 Touchdown Passes
Count me in the minority, but I have confidence in Mac Jones and this New England offense.
Last year’s New England offense was a complete disaster under Matt Patricia. Bill O’Brien returns to the Patriots with a solid resume of NFL success. In 2017, he completely changed the Texans offense to fit Deshaun Watson’s strengths. Watson finished as the overall QB5, QB2 and QB5 in O’Brien’s final three seasons.
While Jones’ ability doesn’t compare to Watson’s, this passing touchdown number is very attainable. Jones threw 22 touchdowns in his rookie season of 2021, which included a game with three passing attempts against the Bills in blustery conditions.
New England has the hardest schedule per projected opposing win totals, including brutal second-half matchups against the Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Steelers and Bills. New England extended DeVante Parker and added intermediate-route specialist JuJu Smith-Schuster in the offseason. Per our FTN Directional Tool, Smith-Schuster ranked 10th among all wide receivers with at least 100 targets in yards per catch (14.6) in the short-middle area of the field.
When you filter that to the short-left area of the field, Smith-Schuster jumps up to eighth overall.
While those numbers receive an obvious boost from the presence of Patrick Mahomes, Smith-Schuster should prove to be a reliable red zone target for the accurate Jones. There still is a chance that the Patriots sign DeAndre Hopkins, which would certainly move this line over the 20-touchdown mark.
This New England offense needs to find more passing production, and given their difficult schedule and improved coaching, I’m betting on Jones to at least reach that 19 passing touchdown mark in 2023.
The Pick
Mac Jones Over 18.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115, Caesars)
Breece Hall 875.5 Rushing Yards
It was a limited but impressive rookie season for Jets running back Breece Hall. New York’s second-round draft pick from Iowa State played in only seven games before tearing his ACL. However, per our FTN Utilization Tool, we see that Hall only accounted for 45% of the team’s rushing attempts when he was active. That ranked behind time-share players such as Latavius Murray (50%), Brian Robinson (51%) and Raheem Mostert (49%).
The counter to this argument is that Hall was gradually eased into the workload as a rookie, and that he received over 60% of the carries in his last three weeks before the injury. While Jets GM Joe Douglas said Hall is currently ahead of schedule, a Week 1 return is still very optimistic. Even when he returns, is it reasonable to believe he receives a regular RB1 workload?
New York has already seen contributions from backup RBs Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight and selected explosive rookie RB Israel Abanikanda in the fifth-round of this year’s draft. Even more concerning, the Jets are still one of the betting favorites to land free agent All-Pro running back Dalvin Cook.
If Hall plays a full season as the Jets RB1, he crushes this number. However, the range of totals on this prop is very tight, ranging from 850.5 yards on Caesars to 875.5 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There isn’t much betting belief in Hall’s rushing yardage total this season.
If Hall’s return is delayed, his workload is limited early, the Jets use multiple running backs, Dalvin Cook arrives, or another injury occurs, the under becomes a very reasonable play.
The Pick
Breece Hall Under 875.5 Rushing Yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
