College Basketball Betting Breakdown (12/10)

This Saturday is hands down the best Saturday slate college basketball has given us so far this season, with plenty of ranked teams facing stiff competition, headlined by two top-15 showdowns. Here, we’ll look at five of the day’s most intriguing matchups, step through the case for each team to cover the spread and walk out of here with some best bets.

If you haven’t been following along with the FTNBets college basketball team yet, this is a great time to start. The team has gotten off to a red hot start and offers plenty of content through the College Basketball Betting Show, Discord and of course, the Bet Tracker. 

(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Houston vs. Alabama Betting Preview

Records: No. 1 Houston (9-0) | No. 8 Alabama (7-1)
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Houston – Fertitta Center
How to Watch: ABC
Odds: Houston -8.5 | O/U 135

How Houston Can Cover the Spread

The 9-0, No. 1-ranked Cougars have throttled opponents on their home floor this season, as illustrated by their 34.5-point average margin of victory in the Fertitta Center. The Cougars force turnovers at a top-10 rate while Alabama ranks outside the top-300 in turnover rate on offense. If Alabama can maintain possession, they’ll likely look to shoot a lot of threes and get to the free throw line, but Houston is above average at defending without fouling and they’re especially good at defending the three ball (22.9% allowed). On offense, Houston grabs its own misses at a top-10 rate in the country. So, they can gain extra possessions through offensive rebounding, and they can take possessions away from Bama by turning them over and blocking their shots. Great recipe for success.

How Alabama Can Cover the Spread

While Houston may have the best defense in the country, Alabama is no slouch. Houston has gotten 57% of its points from two-point range this season, but the Crimson Tide allows opponents to shoot just 39.7% from inside the arc, ranking fourth nationally. How else does Houston generate offense? Offensive rebounding. The Cougars are relentless for 40 minutes on the offensive glass, but Alabama ranks top-75 in defensive rebounding percentage, so they might be able to limit them a bit. On offense, Alabama ranks top-five in the nation in offensive rebounding and Houston isn’t nearly as dominant on the defensive glass. Earning second chances on offense and preventing Houston from owning the boards could be the key for an Alabama cover, but I’ll ride with the Cougs at home.

The Pick

Houston -8.5

Indiana vs. Arizona Betting Preview

Records: No. 14 Indiana (7-1) | No. 10 Arizona (8-1)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Las Vegas – MGM Grand Garden Arena
How to Watch: FOX
Odds: Arizona -1 | O/U 157

How Indiana Can Cover the Spread

Arizona will pose a new type of threat to Indiana Saturday as the Wildcats operate at the fastest pace in the country and trot out two dominant big men that could give Trayce Jackson-Davis trouble. To win and or cover the spread, the Hoosiers will have to rely on TJD to run the floor with the Arizona bigs (which he can), and they’ll need to expose Arizona’s below-average three-point defense despite their reluctance to shoot the deep ball this year. Indiana has also been far more reliable on both sides of the court than Arizona when it comes to winning the turnover battle. If the Hoosiers really want to win though, they might need star freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino to suit up and be healthy in order to keep up with Arizona’s firepower.

How Arizona Can Cover the Spread

Despite shooting just 8-of-48 from three-point range in their last two games, Arizona has the No. 1 effective field goal percentage offense and is No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency per Kenpom. This team is as relentless offensively as Houston is defensively and their two bigs – Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo – could give Indiana fits on the inside. Ballo ranks top-25 nationally in free throw rate, so if Jackson-Davis is defending him, he’ll be at risk of getting into foul trouble. If he’s not, the Gonzaga transfer will almost certainly dominate one or all of the smaller Indiana bigs. If the Hoosiers decide to pack the paint or double team Arizona’s two-headed monster, they’re more than capable to kick it out to open shooters, of which there are many. Despite the aforementioned poor shooting as of late, Arizona is still hitting at a 36.5% clip from downtown. It’s very possible that this offense’s shooting woes regress to the mean and if they do, I think Zona could win big. If Hood-Schifino can’t go, I like Arizona in this spot even more.

The Pick

Arizona -1

Missouri vs. Kansas Betting Preview

Records: Missouri (9-0) | No. 6 Kansas (8-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Location: Columbia, MO – Mizzou Arena
How to Watch: ESPN
Odds: Kansas -3.5 | O/U 155

How Missouri Can Cover the Spread

Missouri has been a pleasant surprise this year, starting 9-0 and eclipsing 80 points in every game thanks to an efficient and extremely fast-paced offense. The knock on the Tigers is that they’ve played just one game against a top-150 team, and it took overtime to win it. In this edition of the Border War, Mizzou will likely look to expose the Jayhawks on the inside. Kansas has big wings and guards, but they lack a traditional rim-protector that can stand under the basket and alter shots all game. Meanwhile, Missouri is shooting nearly 64% from two-point range this season and grabbing 32% of their missed shots.

How Kansas Can Cover the Spread

The Jayhawks will be walking into a hostile environment Saturday when they look for a repeat performance of last year’s 37-point beatdown in Allen Fieldhouse. Both teams are vastly different than they were last season, but Kansas might be able to live on the offensive glass like it did a year ago as its big guards and athletic frontcourt make defensive rebounding a nightmare for other teams. Missouri lets opponents take and make a ton of threes, so if Kansas’ shots are falling early, it would be icing on the cake for a team that doesn’t need the three ball to be successful. On defense, the Jayhawks’ size and propensity for deflections and steals could disrupt Mizzou’s offensive rhythm, and the Tigers very seldom get to the free throw line. Kansas is battle-tested with neutral court games against Duke, N.C. State, Wisconsin and Tennessee under their belt, and I think that carries them here against a team that has beat up on lesser competition. Rock Chalk in a tight one on the road.

The Pick

Kansas -3.5

Auburn vs. Memphis Betting Preview

Records: No. 11 Auburn (8-0) | Memphis (7-2)
Time: 5 p.m. ET
Location: Atlanta – State Farm Arena
How to Watch: ESPN Plus
Odds: Auburn -2.5 | O/U 136

How Auburn Can Cover the Spread

Auburn’s recipe for success against Memphis is fairly simple: Create more possessions through offensive rebounds and steals and defend the paint like it has all year. Auburn ranks eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (38.5%) while Memphis barely ranks inside the top-300 in defensive rebounding, so Bruce Pearl’s squad could realistically live on the boards if shots aren’t falling. On the other side of the court, Memphis prefers to score from two-point range and Auburn tends to run shooters off of the three-point line. So, once Memphis gets the ball inside the arc, Auburn needs to protect the rim by imposing its top-15 two-point defense, top-25 steal rate and No. 1 block rate. If it can do so and force Memphis to find other ways to score, it could stifle Kendric Davis and company.

How Memphis Can Cover the Spread

Memphis’ keys to victory are similar to Auburn’s as both teams rely on offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers and stifling defense. Memphis’ biggest advantage against Auburn, though, might be its ability to keep opponents out of the paint and force them to take perimeter shots or get to the free throw line. If Memphis is able to do that against Auburn, it would go a long way towards victory as Auburn shoots just 29% from three and 65% from the free throw line. Only 44% of the points Memphis has given up have come from two-point field goals (bottom-50 in the country) and it’s holding opponents to just 42.8% shooting from inside the arc. Styles make fights and I think Memphis has the slight edge here when it comes to preventing the other team from doing what it wants to do.

The Pick

Memphis +2.5

Oklahoma vs. Arkansas Betting Preview

Records: Oklahoma (7-2) | No. 9 Arkansas (8-1)
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Tulsa, OK – Bank of Oklahoma Center
How to Watch: ESPN2
Odds: Arkansas -3.5 | O/U 133

How Oklahoma Can Cover the Spread

Oklahoma is 3-0 on neutral courts this year, but it hasn’t faced anyone as talented as Arkansas. If the Sooners want to take out the No. 9 Razorbacks, they’ll likely need to do it by slowing the pace, getting to the free throw line and turning this into a rockfight. Eric Musselman loves to let Arkansas’ top-tier athletes fly up and down the court, but Oklahoma plays at one of the nation’s slowest paces. Forcing this young Razorbacks team to grind out a game in the half court could be effective, especially considering Arkansas doesn’t shoot well from the outside and the Sooners are great at cleaning the defensive glass. Oklahoma can also keep the game slow by getting to the line against a sometimes foul-prone Arkansas team since their athleticism and length makes it tough to score otherwise.

How Arkansas Can Cover the Spread

First of all, stud freshman Nick Smith is back and looks great for Arkansas, which could take this team to another level. To beat Oklahoma, he’ll be a big part of pushing the pace and creating as many possessions as possible. More possessions means more opportunity for Arkansas’ talent to overwhelm the Sooners. On offense, the Razorbacks’ athletic guards love to get to the rim and thankfully for them, almost 61% of the points scored on Oklahoma this season have come from two-point range. On defense, those same big, athletic guards should cause problems for a smaller Oklahoma backcourt. The Razorbacks take the ball away from opponents at a top-30 rate in the nation while the Sooners rank outside of the top-250 in protecting against steals. I think Arkansas pushes the pace and lets its talent shine through in this one.

The Pick

Arkansas -3.5