College Football Games of the Week: Week 11

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best moneymaking opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

(Alabama -11.5, O/U 65, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Last week, Alabama took a brutal blow to their chances to go to another College Football Playoff with a loss to LSU. Now they sit at third in the SEC West and will need a miracle to get back to the conference championship game.

This season the Alabama offense just hasn’t been as dominant as they normally are. The Crimson Tide are ranked 39th in offensive success rate and 24th in finishing drives. Even with Bryce Young back at quarterback for most of the year, they still rank just 30th in passing success rate and 42nd in PPA. 

The normally strong running game for Alabama has also been a step behind its normal production. They rank 55th in rushing success rate, but Jahmyr Gibbs does have some big play ability that they haven’t had in a while. Largely due to Gibbs, Alabama ranks 5th in rushing explosiveness.

Ole Miss’ rushing offense has been one of the best in the country this season. They are 13th in rushing success rate and 15th in PPA this season. Former five-star transfer running back Zach Evans and freshman Quinshon Judkins have spearheaded this lethal rushing attack. The Rebels rush at the7th highest rate in the country, so I would expect to see a lot of these two.

Jaxson Dart transferred to Oxford from USC this offseason and has done an admirable job of replacing Matt Corral. The Ole Miss passing attack ranks 43rd in success rate and 50th in PPA this year. 

Unfortunately for the Rebels, Alabama’s run defense has been very strong this year. They are first in the country in PFF run defense grade, 11th in rushing PPA allowed and 38th in rushing success rate. 

With the problems that Alabama has experienced on offense this year, I think that they may have trouble getting things going on this end yet again, as they appear to just be in disarray at times. 

Jaxson Dart has been okay this season but isn’t a great passer and I think that will show up against an Alabama defense that now has Eli Ricks back at cornerback. Alabama’s defense should be able to hold tough against the Ole Miss rushing attack, forcing Dart into tough passing situations.

The Pick

Under 65 Points. Bet to 63.5.

UCF vs. Tulane

(Tulane -1.5, O/U 54.5, BetMGM)

Typically, the games of the week come from the Power 5 conferences, but this AAC matchup is one of the best of the weekend. No. 17 Tulane and No. 22 UCF will face off for the top spot in the conference standings, which may also end up determining which team will end up with the G5 New Years’ Six berth this season.

There is one particular matchup in this game that I think will end up determining the outcome. This mismatch is the UCF rushing offense against Tulane’s rushing defense. 

UCF runs at the No. 27 rate in the country, making up 56% of their plays. This season the Knights rank 15th in rushing success rate and 24th in EPA per rush. On the other side, Tulane’s rushing defense may be outmatched. The Green Wave’s rushing defense ranks just 94th in rushing success rate.

This will end up being the biggest discrepancy between the two teams on the field Saturday. I think that this mismatch will play in UCF’s favor and result in them picking up the big conference win.

The Pick

UCF +1.5. Bet to -2.5.

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

(Wake Forest -3.5, O/U 77.5, Caesars)

In one of the biggest surprises of the year, North Carolina is sitting at 8-1 on the season and is undefeated in ACC play. As of right now they have a direct shot at the ACC Championship if they are able to keep up what they have been doing. 

The biggest revelation for this team has been the play of freshman quarterback Drake Maye. Maye has already proven himself as one of the most capable passers in college football this season.

North Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in passing success rate and 1st in passing EPA per play. The Tar Heels rank 43rd in passing play rate as this makes up most of their offensive production.

On the other side of the ball, North Carolina has been the complete offense. All season they have been completely inept when it comes to defending. North Carolina ranks 111th in passing success rate against and 125th in passing EPA per play on defense.

Wake Forest is the team to exploit this weakness. The Demon Deacons haven’t been too bad throwing the ball themselves. Wake ranks 15th in passing success rate and 22nd in EPA per pass. Lately their problem has been the turnovers from quarterback Sam Hartman. If they are able to reign these in, Wake Forest shouldn’t have any problems throwing against this flawed North Carolina defense.

Wake’s defense isn’t fantastic, but they are much better than what North Carolina is bringing to the table. I think that this will end up being the difference in this game and be the reason that Wake Forest is able to bring down the #15 team in the nation.

The Pick

Wake Forest -3.5 (+100). Bet to -4.