FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
The NBA had a massive slate of games on both Monday and Wednesday, taking off Tuesday for Election Day. Thursday, we have just four games and eight teams in action.
We were able to find a few bettable edges using both the FTN NBA Betting Model and the FTN NBA player prop model. Here are my best bets for the total, points prop, assist prop and rebound prop markets for Thursday’s NBA action.
Best NBA Total Bet
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat Over 213.5 Points
This opened at 215 and has been bet down. Our FTN Betting Model has this as the biggest edge in the spread or total market Thursday at the adjusted number. Miami’s offense has been rolling. Charlotte not so much, but I like the fact they are rested even if Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball remain out.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Tobias Harris Over 16.5 Points
This opened at 15.5 and is nowhere under -130 anymore at that number. Most books moved to 16.5 and many of them are at -108 or -110. Tobias Harris has dropped 20 or more points each of the last two games, which coincides with James Harden being out. Harris sacrifices his offense for the team but can still score when needed and the extra 5-plus shots he has seen per game help that floor. He averaged just over 10 in the first nine games but saw 15 and 18 the last two without Harden.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Damian Lillard Over 5.5 Assists
This number is way too low. Damian Lillard was out for a few games and minutes were a concern, but he played 36 last game, and I don’t see any reason he would not do that again. New Orleans is an above average matchup for a point guard. Lillard has topped 35 minutes and 6 assists in each game he’s been back.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Kelly Oubre Over 4.5 Rebounds
Kelly Oubre averages 4.3 rebounds on the year but has seen a bump in minutes without Hayward. Oubre is also coming off an 8-rebound game and Miami has been a good matchup for perimeter players so far this year. His scoring props are up, but the rebounds remain low. That is how I hope to get some value off him Thursday.
