College Football Games of the Week: Week 2

Week 1 provided some great action across the board and reminded us why we all love college football. Week 2 also has some intriguing matchups that provide some great betting angles.

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best money-making opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines where I see the largest edges in the market.

Alabama at Texas

(Alabama -20, O/U 65.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

When you see these two program names, this looks like it will be an awesome game. Two of the top brands in college football playing in a non-conference matchup in Austin.

It will not live up to this billing though, however.

Alabama dominated Utah State last week, as they should have. Alabama has the talent advantage over almost every single team they play and can be expected to win these games against inferior opponents handily.

Texas did the same thing last week against UL Monroe, which is a promising sign to see.

These two teams still aren’t on the same level though. With this game I am getting similar vibes to the Georgia-Oregon game last week. Oregon is viewed as a widely talented team and people wanted them to be able to hang with Georgia, but the gap between them and the Bulldogs ended up being astronomical.

Quinn Ewers just started his first college football game last week. While he did well overall, the Texas offensive line did struggle, and Ewers didn’t look comfortable in the pocket. That will only be exacerbated by facing the Alabama defense.

Texas’ defense won’t pose any threat towards stopping the Crimson Tide. Both Bryce Young and Jahmyr Gibbs will have big days.

Unfortunately, there shouldn’t be any fireworks here. We’ve seen this for over a decade now. Alabama will walk into Austin and steamroll his former assistant Steve Sarkisian.

Pick: Alabama -20 (Bet to -23.5)

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

(Tennessee -6.5, O/U 66.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

This may actually be one of the most exciting games of the week. Pittsburgh featured a heavy passing attack with Kenny Pickett last year but is expected to lean into the running game more this year with the departures of Pickett and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. They did show last week though that they are still prone to getting into a high-scoring affair as they played in a 38-31 game against rivals West Virginia.

Kedon Slovis is the new quarterback for Pitt this year after transferring in from USC. He looked great in his Panther debut, throwing for 308 yards and 0.18 EPA/play. While Pat Narduzzi wants to slow the game down and run the ball, he won’t be able to do that this week against Tennessee.

Tennessee’s 2021 offense had the 14^th-highest offensive success rate in the country, playing a difficult SEC schedule. They set the school record for points in a season and may be even better this year with eight starters returning.

Hendon Hooker has flourished in Josh Heupel’s offense. Last week he didn’t need to play the full game against Ball State, but in his 25 pass attempts he averaged 0.41 EPA/play. 

Tennessee’s defense was close to average last year and was balanced as they ranked about the same in terms of success rate against both the run and the pass. They are better than the West Virginia defense that Pittsburgh faced last week, but I don’t think that they will be good enough to completely shut Pitt down.

I think the Volunteers should win this game and may cover as well, but I like going with the total in this game more. Both offenses will be able to move the ball at will and this game has massive shootout potential. This total seems high, but both teams have a chance to hit 40 points.

The Pick: Over 66.5 Points (Play to 69.5)

Florida vs. Kentucky

(Florida -5.5, O/U 52.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I wrote about Florida vs. Utah last week, and it went about how I thought it would in terms of offensive production. Anthony Richardson showed out on a national stage and is now in the Heisman conversation.

This week, Will Levis and the Kentucky Wildcats will head down to “The Swamp” to take on their SEC rivals. There is a lot of buzz around Levis as well after he led Kentucky to a 10-3 record last year. Levis is being talked about as a potential high first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft if he is able to replicate what he did last season.

The biggest changes for Kentucky’s offense this offseason is the loss of their top two receivers and three starting offensive linemen. Florida’s defense wasn’t great last year and struggled in Week 1, but they do return seven starters on that side of the ball. Kentucky was able to handle Miami OH with relative ease last week, so these issues didn’t come to light, but in their first test against SEC competition, Kentucky’s offense may not be quite as good as they were last year.

I still love Richardson and Florida’s offense. They were good last year and against Utah’s solid defense they still had a massive offensive game last week. Only five starters return for this Kentucky defense that ranked 89th in success rate last season, including no starters on the defensive line. 

Playing in front of their home crowd for the second week in a row, I think that Florida is the better team in this game and will have a great day on offense. I like the Gators to cover here. Most books are at 6, but I was able to find -5.5, under the key number of 6, at FanDuel using our FTN Bets Odds Page.

Pick: Florida -5.5 (Bet to -6.5)