How the Rams can win Super Bowl 56 and cover the spread

The Los Angeles Rams enter Super Bowl 56 as the clear favorites in a matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals made an unlikely run through the AFC playoffs, and L.A. presents Cincinnati with its most difficult matchup yet.  

Here’s a look at how the Rams can beat the Bengals and cover the spread in Super Bowl 56. 

Super Bowl 56 preview

The Rams opened as 3.5-point favorites and a -165 moneyline favorite at BetMGM. Cincinnati opened with +140 odds, looking to become the seventh underdog in the last decade to pull off a Super Bowl upset. The total opened at 49.5.

It’s not much of a surprise that Los Angeles won the NFC, given the team entered Week 1 with the NFL’s fourth-best Super Bowl odds at +1200. The offseason trade for Matthew Stafford paid off, elevating a perennial playoff team that was held back by their starting quarterback. Midseason additions of Odell Beckham and Von Miller helped the Rams win the NFC West with a 12-5 record.

The Rams blew out the Arizona Cardinals 34-11 in the Wild-Card Round. Despite Tom Brady’s best efforts to mount another historic comeback, Los Angeles outlasted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-27 in the NFC Divisional Round. In the NFC Championship Game, the Rams made a 10-point, fourth-quarter comeback to beat the San Francisco 49ers, 20-17.

Good luck finding anyone outside of Cincinnati who predicted the Bengals to reach Super Bowl 56 in September. On the heels of five straight losing seasons, the Bengals started the season with +15000 Super Bowl odds, putting them only ahead of the Detroit Lions (+25000) and Houston Texans (+30000). Joe Burrow’s emergence as a star NFL quarterback sparked an AFC North title run.

The Bengals held off the Las Vegas Raiders 26-19 on Wild-Card Weekend. Cincinnati survived nine sacks to Burrow with a 19-16 win over the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Divisional Round. Seemingly left for dead down 21-3 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bengals shut down Patrick Mahomes in the second-half of the AFC Championship Game for a stunning 27-24 overtime victory.

Rams’ Super Bowl game plan

The battle between Los Angeles’ pass rush and Cincinnati’s offensive line might ultimately decide Super Bowl 56. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times in the regular season. The Rams finished third with 50 team sacks. If Los Angeles can put constant pressure on Burrow, the Rams will be in great shape to win comfortably.

Burrow made some incredible plays to escape pressure in Kansas City, ending the afternoon with just one sack. It was a much different story one week earlier. Not only does Burrow have to contend with Aaron Donald, but he faces a Rams’ defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a 67.0 passer rating this postseason.

Betting Von Miller to get a sack might be a worthwhile prop bet. The Super Bowl 50 MVP can take advantage of all the attention Donald will get. Miller had a sack in each of the first two playoff games, and he ended the regular season with at least one sack in four straight contests. 

On offense, Cooper Kupp is virtually guaranteed to put up big numbers. Kupp has at least 90 receiving yards in 15 of the last 16 games. With 20 touchdowns this season, Kupp has +320 odds to be the Rams’ first touchdown scorer, another prop bet to consider.

The Rams are 13-2 when Stafford throws no more than one interception. Los Angeles is 2-3 in the quarterback’s multiple-interception games. 

Super Bowl 56 prediction

The magic that carried Cincinnati through the AFC playoffs has probably run out. Ryan Tannehill’s three interceptions bailed out the Bengals and their offensive line. Mahomes’ boneheaded mistake at the end of the first half and a second-half collapse aided Cincinnati. Don’t expect there to be such help against the Rams, who will be vying for a championship in their home stadium. 

Los Angeles has outgained its opponents by 375 yards in the postseason. Stafford was the best quarterback in each contest, completing 72% of his passes for six touchdowns and one interception. The Rams’ pass rush is built to take advantage of Cincinnati’s biggest weakness. Jalen Ramsey gives the Rams a cornerback who can make life difficult for Ja’Marr Chase. 

The Bengals haven’t scored 27 points in regulation this postseason. The Rams hit the 30-point mark twice.

Burrow can’t beat the Rams by himself. Los Angeles’ decision to risk its future and go “all-in” on this season is about to pay off. 

Pick: Rams -3.5