NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (10/28)

What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

Last night was brutal, we put up a goose egg, so naturally I put my nose down a bit more today to try and find three winners. 

Jaren Jackson o15.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)

Projection: 19.92 points

Jaren Jackson struggled in several ways last night, he shot 3-13 and picked up five fouls which led him to play just 18 minutes. Fouls are always an issue for Jackson, but he is a solid scorer who has a career average of 15.4 points per game, and this should be a game environment for scoring as both teams play quick. 

Desmond Bane u14.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Projection: 12.37 points

Desmond Bane has been a pleasant surprise for Grizzlies fans, and while it might sound counterintuitive to bet an under in a game I believe will be a really exciting environment for scoring, Bane’s number is juiced up massively thanks to his hot start this season, where he is averaging 19 PPG. This is a regression bet, Bane averaged 9 PPG last season, and the model is accounting for things like minutes and usage boosts as well as the solid matchup, but I still have him projected for less than 13 tonight. 

De’Andre Hunter o3.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

Projection: 5.15 rebounds

De’Andre Hunter is another example of the smaller sample of 2021-22 leading to some numbers that could be off. For example, this year Hunter is averaging less than three rebounds a game, but over the last two years he averaged nearly five per game. This is a pace-up spot for the Hawks, and even though the Wizards are just 15th in pace, the Hawks are the second slowest team in basketball.