Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The Big Ten East was a two-team race last year, as Ohio State and Indiana proved to be significantly better than any of their competition. The two schools combined for a 13-3 record while no other division member reached a winning record. That must change in 2021.
At the bottom of the Big Ten East was Michigan State. A proud and competitive program just a few years ago, head coach Mel Tucker tried to navigate his new program under the pandemic-induced turbulence last year. Their 2-5 record featured horrible play on both sides of the ball.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
Can they right the ship in 2021 or is this more of a transition year? We’ll preview the best odds and future plays on the Michigan State Spartans for 2021.
(Join FTNBets with our Early Bird NFL package!)
Michigan State Spartans regular season wins
(O/U 5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The best pathway to win money on the Michigan State Spartans in 2021 is to look at their season win total number. Set at 5, the bar is fairly low for a program that was scaring every Big Ten foe they faced each week just a few short years ago. But reaching .500 would be a quality season for Mel Tucker and company.
The analytical profile for this team is weak but also difficult to read. The Spartans return only 69% of their production from last year, and the overall number is misleading. I’d argue the total return is higher than the impact and efficiency of the production, especially on offense.
In other words, the offense was horrible in 2020 and getting 80% of the production back into the fold isn’t beneficial. The Spartans managed 54.5% passing for 238 yards, and a measly 91 rushing yards on 2.7 yards per carry. There weren’t many offenses more inept than theirs.
The good news is the unit may overhaul the backfield and a few blockers. Quarterback Rocky Lombardi was awful and is gone, and now Payton Thorne, who showed nothing in 2020, will battle with former Temple quarterback Anthony Russo for the job. Russo’s tenure at Temple was plagued with interceptions and spotty accuracy but could produce enough big plays along with the turnovers to at least make the offense a threat to score.
The starting backfield returns with competition as well. Former Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker injects a solid presence to a unit that struggled to find rushing lanes in 2020. Walker isn’t good enough to make bad blockers significantly better, but he can take everything that’s available in a consistent manner.
Michigan State added graduate transfer blocker Jarrett Horst to go with three other senior or graduate starters along the line. This should help bolster a group that was dreadful at creating time last year. It’s imperative for the team’s success.
The receiving unit has some quality talent if Russo can tighten his decision-making and accuracy. Jalen Nailor is a huge threat after averaging almost 20 yards per-catch for 515 yards and four scores. Teammate Jayden Reed is another dangerous presence who was stuck in a morbid situation, but a breakout is possible.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
Last year’s defense did well enough to win a lot of games even with an offense that repeatedly set them up for failure. But only 28 teams lost more production from last year, meaning it’s a rebuild year. Mel Tucker went the transfer route to placate a unit needing experience, size, and impact all over.
It remains to be seen as to how so many new pieces will fare. Nine transfers were added, and the back seven received all but one. This is a critical part of the defense since so many Big Ten offenses are now faster and spread than ever before.
The reality for the Spartans is they have a ton of room to make up between them and the rest of the division and there’s a lack of clear answers right now. Their team win total is set at five. The following games can be argued in their favor if their new pieces gel well: Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, at Rutgers, at Purdue and maybe at Northwestern. The best case is they win each of those games and their Week 4 home matchup against Nebraska.
We can’t take the over on their season total, because it’s assuming so much goes right for this team. The Spartans have a hard schedule because they go to Miami, Indiana and Ohio State, with home games against Michigan and Penn State. We’re fading the Spartans’ win total for 2021.
Our pick: Under 5 (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
