Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Big Ten East is expected to be another landslide once again. The mighty Ohio State Buckeyes loom so large over the division that oddsmakers aren’t even offering a play on the Big Ten East. Although there’s not much we can do about that, we’ve found several great value plays within the conference.
The Michigan Wolverines are ripe to land some longshot plays. Expectations are low for Jim Harbaugh’s eighth season with his alma mater. He’s failed to win at least 77% of his games in any single season in each season with the program, and only once in his collegiate coaching career.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
Nevertheless, Michigan extended Harbaugh’s contract after a 2-4 record in 2020. We feel there’s reason to have optimism about the program for 2021 regardless of whether winning the division and conference are realistic. Let’s break it all down.
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Michigan Wolverines regular season wins
(O/U 7.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
By far the most enticing line we can play for Michigan is the Wolverines’ regular season win total. Set at a realistic 7.5 total, oddsmakers are no longer putting the brand above the actual product. The Wolverines haven’t recruited especially well and are now a program trying to fight to the top to re-establish themselves once again.
We can look at last year’s squad for an idea of the upside for 2021. Michigan returns a solid 73% of production from last year, and that number can be skewed more positively than that if we choose. The major loss from the offense was quarterback Joe Milton, who transferred to Tennessee after Cade McNamara replaced him amid inconsistent play. McNamara was more consistent and productive even as a freshman.
It’s possible McNamara doesn’t even start the most games this year. Adding transfer Alan Bowman from Texas Tech was a low-key savvy move by Harbaugh after he showed great accuracy at times in Lubbock. Freshman J.J. McCarthy is also a notable recruit addition to the room.
Point blank: the offense will at least pick up where they left off in 2020 because the quarterback room is finally more promising after years of poor play. Regardless of starter, tailback Hassan Haskins is the main producer for the unit after a monstrous campaign last year. Haskins racked up 375 yards and six touchdowns on a terrific 6.1-yard per-carry average.
The offense’s top receivers are back as well. Ronnie Bell and Cornelus Jackson were big-play threats in a benign passing game. I expect both to take a step forward as well because the quarterbacks should push the ball downfield more effectively.
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While the offense is key for the ceiling of the team, the defense will determine the floor for the Wolverines’ team success in 2021. Pass-rusher Kwity Paye is gone, but the three most important defenders are back in the mix. Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Ross and Daxton Hill are key Big Ten defenders and must be anchors of this unit.
Who will take Paye’s role as the primary rusher is a huge question mark. There’s not a clear candidate who is proven but this is partially why the Wolverines have a lower bar than some of their conference foes. The roster has clear weaknesses on paper.
Regardless, we’re projecting wins against Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, at Nebraska, Northwestern, at Michigan State and at Maryland. Can they get a swing game against Washington, Indiana, Ohio State or at Wisconsin or Penn State? I think they can, so I am taking the over on their win total.
Our play: Michigan Over 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
