Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The college football season starts this month and fans around the country have to be foaming at the mouth for a full slate of action. Last year’s coronavirus-limited season made every week unpredictable, but not in a fun way. We’re hoping 2021 is filled with great drama and profitable bet sheets.
We’re breaking down every college football conference division odds as we prepare for the regular season. There’s great uncertainty across the nation because even the blueblood programs are trying to reload after losing experienced talent. The door may be open for one or several longshots to emerge.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
The ACC Atlantic Division has a heavy favorite as the Clemson Tigers are a true powerhouse program. They should easily win the division again, but we’re looking at every team to project how their season could play out. From Clemson to Syracuse, let’s dive in and project the ACC Atlantic Division.
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Clemson Tigers division winner odds
(-2000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
If there’s any question as to what the expectations are of the Clemson Tigers even after losing Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, simply look at the odds for their success. The Tigers are second on DraftKings to win the National Championship, and have a quarterback in D.J. Uiagalelei who is second in the Heisman Trophy odds.
The Tigers will be under the spotlight immediately as they host a showdown with Georgia to start the season. However, the rest of their schedule couldn’t be more favorable. Clemson often has a midseason lull that leaves them vulnerable, but only they can cost themselves a single loss besides Georgia.
There’s not a single scenario barring a COVID-19 disaster that ends in anyone but Clemson winning the ACC Atlantic Division. Their backups would be highly competitive, if not outright division-winning, if they were forced to start.
Louisville Cardinals division winner odds
(+1800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Either oddsmakers are extremely high on Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield and quarterback Malik Cunningham or they foresee no upside with their competition for second place. The Cardinals were a bad team in 2020, going 4-7 with a good but turnover-prone offense and a mediocre defense.
Things get worse in 2021. Leading rusher Javian Hawkins and receivers Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick are now in the NFL. Cunningham will need to turn into a reincarnate of Lamar Jackson to even replicate how well they played last year.
The defense is in worse shape as well. Only 13 teams are bringing less production from the previous year back to the field, and now a flurry of transfers are in line to play. I’m projecting Louisville to be closer to the bottom of the conference than the top, especially with a tough opening slate featuring both Ole Miss and UCF.
NC State Wolfpack division winner odds
(+2000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The team most qualified to upset Clemson in a head-to-head matchup and create waves in the ACC is N.C. State. The Wolfpack figured out their quarterback position while producing a highly dangerous backfield tandem with Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. Now, the offense is in the hands of incumbent passer Devin Leary and the team is primed to push for 10 wins.
The team’s top three receivers are also back in the fold. Their biggest offensive obstacle is their youth along the line, but this program has continued to churn out average or better units. Only top foes will take advantage of the blocking.
The defense is even scarier as 90% of a solid unit is back from 2020. There’s not a better linebacker duo in the nation than Isaiah Moore and Payton Wilson. Leading sack artist Daniel Joseph is also back in the fold.
I’ll be taking any early NC State line I can thanks to their strong profile.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons division winner odds
(+2200, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wake Forest is the most fun second-tier ACC Atlantic Division team. With the eighth-most production on offense coming back and a potential star quarterback in Sam Hartman emerging as an upgrade over Jamie Newman, the Demon Deacons have the foundation to win any shootout. Head coach Dave Clawson has all his top playmakers back with the exception of backup rusher Kenneth Walker.
The efficiency of the offense must improve now that the line has more experience. There’s no excuse for why this unit completed under 57% of passes and only 3.9 yards per rush except for a bad line. The defense was significantly worse than this offense, and that’s the biggest thing holding them back.
The secondary has two freshmen set to earn major playing time and the front-seven has just one returning player with 3.5 sacks or more. It’s going to be a long season for the defense as they scramble to be competent, but the offense will give them a chance to win almost every week.
Florida State Seminoles division winner odds
(+2500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Without a question, the coolest moment of the 2021 college football season will be whenever McKenzie Milton steps onto the field for the first time since his horrific knee injury at UCF in 2018. Whether that’s Week 1 against Notre Dame or sometime later if he loses the quarterback battle against Jordan Travis, Milton’s redemption story is an overwhelmingly positive presence hanging over the program. Florida State needed this momentum.
Head coach Mike Norvell has a slew of young but unproven talent at his disposal. The running game was finally clicking last year, a good sign the offensive line is progressing, but the Seminoles won’t achieve much if the quarterback doesn’t have time to throw from a clean pocket. Norvell will need to scheme well to get a great performance from three starting linemen with less than three years of experience.
The defense is also young and why so many are down on this team. My projections agree, this fast and developing unit will be overpowered again. But this team is on the upswing finally and we’ll see the Seminoles as a healthier, more dangerous program in a few years as their depth grows.
Boston College Eagles division winner odds
(+2500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Watching Boston College under Jeff Hafley is reminiscent of what college football looked like a decade ago. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec is a 6-foot-5 giant among a nation of shrinking dual-threat quarterbacks and the Eagles rely on a traditional run-first approach with heavy tight end usage.
There’s nothing sexy about the Eagles, including their 3.1 yard-per-carry average.
The defense is as problematic as their outdated offensive approach. Five of their best front-seven players are transfers looking to plug a hole for 2021. The back end of the defense is experienced in age but not overly productive. Hafley opted to compete short-term over developing prospects who need time on the field to improve.
This raises the team’s floor but lowers their ceiling. Another season hovering around .500 is coming, with a slight advantage towards the Eagles against similar competition due to their advanced age of starters.
Syracuse Orange division winner odds
(+8000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
As bad as 2020 was for the 1-10 Syracuse Orange, there’s reason to believe the team will turn the horrible experience into positive steps forward. Head coach Dino Babers is retaining 80% of his production from an extremely young team last year. He won’t have to start true freshmen at several spots along the roster.
The offense should be interesting and more threatening at least. Transfer quarterback Garrett Shrader brings a dual-threat element along with stud playmakers Sean Tucker and Taj Harris. The stability on the unit should lead to serious improvement from what may have been the worst offense in college football last year.
The defense might be terrible again, though. The only upperclassmen on the unit are the starting defensive line and safety Eric Coley. The rest are first- and second-year players. Any quarterback who doesn’t shred the unit may need to be benched because it’d be unacceptable to not have career numbers against such an undermanned unit.
Syracuse will be bad again, but they’re taking their lumps now as their roster gains valuable experience.
