Chasing CLV - NFL Draft Value Bets

I have said it time and time again: When you see a bad line during draft season, you have to pounce like a tiger on its prey. Don’t wait to act. That’s how I currently have CLV on 57 NFL draft bets with just 11 lines moving against me. Tuesday morning, I discovered a stale line to take advantage of on BetMGM Sportsbook, and while it’s not a lock to hit, the value of the bet is absurd.

2021 NFL Draft Value Bets

Earlier this week, the Baltimore Ravens traded tackle Orlando Brown to the Kansas City Chiefs, acquiring the 31st overall pick in the process. This gave the Ravens two first-round picks — 27 and 31 — to reload for another run at a championship.

Currently the Ravens are favored to go wide receiver with their first pick at +200, but that is just their first pick — it doesn't include the 31st overall selection. The back half of the first round is said to be the sweet spot for Tier 2 receivers like Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore and Kadarius, Toney who all have totals between 26-32, where the Ravens pick. Since the Ravens made this trade the line for “over 4.5 receivers” has jumped from -200 to -335, with the massive assumption the Ravens don't leave without one.

The Ravens are unlikely to be the only AFC North team to add a receiver, with the Cincinnati Bengals locking in on stud receiver Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals currently sit at -150 to draft a receiver with their first pick, but the probability I have been told makes it closer to 80 plus percent.

Currently, BetMGM is offering both the Bengals and Ravens a first-round receiver at +350, a stale line that doesn't match with the Ravens having two picks.

This line won’t last for long, so run don’t walk to BetMGM Sportsbook and get down on this line.

(Get all my NFL Draft betting picks here)