Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With the Elite 8 set, Brad Evans from FTNFantasy.com blows out the candles and rolls out a four-pack of player props for this weekend’s matchups.
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Prop 1: Warith Alatishe, Oregon St. UNDER 9.5 points
For the Houston native, tonight’s matchup against the Cougars likely has all the feels. Oregon St.’s presence in the Elite 8 is nothing shy of unbelievable. Picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 preseason, they’ve defied this-unathletic-dad-bod-dunking-on-Shaq-in-his-prime odds. Alatishe’s defense is one reason why the Beavers are one step away from their first Final Four appearance since 1963. He’s sporadically exploded offensively, but against a position-less and uber-athletic Houston bunch, it’s unlikely he’ll reach double figures. This month, UH has allowed only 0.921 points per possession and 42.8% from inside the arc. Failing to reach 10 points in three of his last four games, the under should come in comfortably.
Prop 2: MaCio Teague, Baylor OVER 16.5 points
More ferocious grizzly than the gummy variety, Teague is a Bear who packs a significant bite. He, alongside Davion Mitchell, Jerad Butler and Adam Flagler, comprise Baylor’s embarrassment of riches backcourt. He scored just 14 combined points against Wisconsin and Villanova but drilling 39.4% from distance, he’s more than capable of igniting any given night. In a game with a proposed total approaching 150 points, Teague is in a prime smash spot. Arkansas’ NASCAR pace and vulnerability along the perimeter defensively (37.9 3PT% D last seven games) presents an exploitable setup. Overdue for a 20-point performance, the Cincinnati product burns the nets.
Prop 3: Drew Timme, Gonzaga UNDER 32.5 fantasy points
Andy Enfield has built quite the program. The Trojans, featuring future multi-millionaire Evan Mobley, are a tour de force defensively. They’re extraordinarily long, athletic and disciplined whether deploying zone or man coverages. Over their last seven contests, they’ve yielded just 0.863 points per possession and 38.7% from inside the arc. Timmie spins with the quick-action movement of the teacup ride at Disneyland. He’s clever and highly effective around the tin. However, he’s not squared off against a player of Mobley’s shot-blocking caliber. This is a matchup where the ‘Zags’ guards will be relied upon most. As a result, expect few handlebar mustache celebrations.
Prop 4: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA OVER 28.5 fantasy points
Bill Walton, presumably well-oiled, naked and properly stoned sitting inside his backyard teepee, is enjoying the magic carpet ride of his life. The Conference of Champions, and his alma mater specifically, is rolling. Jaquez is a massive reason why the Bruins have returned to relevancy. Dangerous off the bound or from outside, he can undress opponents in variable ways. He’s reached double-figures in points in seven consecutive games, consistently chipping in 5-7 rebounds, 2-4 assists and the occasional steal/block. Michigan is fundamentally sound defensively, but Jaquez’s versatility presents a matchup problem. Bank on at least 14 points, 5-7 boards and 2-3 assists. Given MKF’s generous premiums for rebounds, dimes, steals and blocks, the sophomore should coast into the 30s fantasy points wise.
