Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
The play — 2-leg alt-line parlay: Florida St. +6, Purdue +7 (DraftKings)
Odds: +102
Leg 1: Florida St. (3-3 ATS) at Clemson (5-2)
Defense is the main course on the menu in Clemson. No fish. No steak. No chicken. Just contested shots and ferocious rebounding. The Tigers under Brad Brownell have held the opposition to a miserable 0.86 points per possession. Dialing up pressure, they’ve forced a turnover on 28.3% of opponent possessions. The Noles’ length, however, is problematic. Seven-footer Balsa Koprivica, Raquan Gray and Anthony Polite should take advantage against a Clemson squad outside the top-155 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Toss in the Tigers’ painful offensive execution (No. 141 in eFG%) and FSU’s ability to hit threes (35.3 3PT%) and a final possession contest materializes.
Leg 2: Purdue (4-6 ATS) at Rutgers (4-3)
Toughness is an overused adjective in sports, but when it comes to Rutgers it applies. Steve Pikell’s bunch are leathery, equipped with the resolve of multiple movie action heroes combined. They shackle the perimeter (31.5 3PT% D in B1G) and challenge shots relentlessly overall (0.90 pts/poss allowed on year). On offense, they’ve tickled the twine, particularly from distance netting 37.2 percent. Specifically, Ron Harper is a blistering 25-for-50 from three this year. Due to Purdue’s size and defensive chops (No. 35 in D efficiency), however, it will throw its fair share of haymakers. Myles Johnson staying out of foul trouble will be paramount with Clifford Omoyuri (knee) doubtful. Also down Mawot Mag (ankle), the Scarlet Knights are quite thin in the post. In the end, interior enforcers Trevion Williams, Zach Eddy and Aaron Wheeler bully their way to a cover. Keep in mind Matt Painter’s crew has won six of the last eight straight up in the series.
Column record: 0-1
