NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Here’s Quick Reads for Wild-Card Weekend, now updated with the two Monday games!
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Jordan Love | GB | 16/21 | 272 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 224 | 0 | DAL |
| As noted in today’s DVOA commentary, this was the best passing DVOA game ever for the Green Bay Packers but it comes out lower in DYAR because Love only had to throw 21 passes. | |||||||||||
| 2. | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 16/21 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 215 | -8 | CLE |
| This was the fifth-best rookie quarterback performance by DYAR and the second best in the playoffs behind Russell Wilson against Atlanta in 2012 when he had 385 passing yards plus 60 rushing yards with a touchdown. Stroud had the second-highest average depth of target this week (10.5) but also got the most YAC per catch (9.8). Stroud was at 172 passing YAR before applying opponent adjustments. | |||||||||||
| 3. | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 25/36 | 367 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 188 | 188 | 0 | DET |
| Stafford had -37 passing DYAR in the red zone, completing just 2 of 7 passes for 7 total yards and no touchdowns. | |||||||||||
| 4. | Josh Allen | BUF | 21/30 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 120 | 92 | 28 | PIT |
| 5. | Jared Goff | DET | 22/27 | 277 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 112 | 112 | 0 | LAR |
| Goff had 81 of his passing DYAR to the short right part of the field, although we can argue whether the touchdown to Sam LaPorta was “right” or “middle.” | |||||||||||
| 6. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 24/41 | 262 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 56 | 20 | MIA |
| Mahomes had just -1 passing DYAR on first down with 17 DYAR on second down and 40 DYAR on third down. He added scrambles for 13 yards (second-and-7) and 28 yards (on fourth-and-5). | |||||||||||
| 7. | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 22/38 | 229 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 66 | 9 | BUF |
| 8. | Baker Mayfield | TB | 22/36 | 337 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 61 | 56 | 6 | PHI |
| 9. | Dak Prescott | DAL | 41/60 | 403 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 13 | GB |
| As you might imagine, all the positive value here comes in the second half. Prescott had -109 passing DYAR in the first half of this game, 7 passing DYAR in the third quarter, and 111 passing DYAR in the fourth quarter. That’s a lot of garbage time! Prescott goes from 58 YAR to 8 DYAR due to opponent adjustments for the poor Packers pass defense. | |||||||||||
| 10. | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 26/35 | 250 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | TB |
| Hurts completed just 1 of 6 attempts over 15 air yards, the 55-yard bomb to DeVonta Smith in the second quarter. | |||||||||||
| 11. | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 20/39 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -40 | -46 | 6 | KC |
| Tua was miserable on third down with -69 passing DYAR. He only converted 1 of 10 opportunities, a 19-yard pass to Cedrick Wilson in the fourth quarter on third-and-9. He also took a sack and threw a pick on third down. | |||||||||||
| 12. | Joe Flacco | CLE | 34/46 | 307 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -97 | -104 | 7 | HOU |
| Flacco started out with 58 passing DYAR in the first quarter and then had -162 passing DYAR the rest of the way. Flacco had 110 passing DYAR on passes up the middle but -143 passing DYAR on passes to the sides. | |||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Aaron Jones | GB | 21 | 118 | 3 | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 77 | 65 | 12 | DAL |
| Jones had only 18 rushing DYAR in the first half (12 carries for 30 yards) then went wild with 47 rushing DYAR in the second half (nine carries for 88 yards). | ||||||||||||
| 2. | Kyren Williams | LAR | 13 | 61 | 0 | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 29 | 24 | 5 | DET |
| 3. | David Montgomery | DET | 14 | 57 | 1 | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 29 | 20 | 9 | LAR |
| Montgomery had -2 rushing DYAR in the second half but a very important reception to move the sticks on the Rams’ final drive. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 8 | 25 | 1 | 4/4 | 43 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 23 | LAR |
| Gibbs had three catches for at least 10 yards each. | ||||||||||||
| 5. | Ronnie Rivers | LAR | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3/3 | 35 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 17 | DET |
| Every time Kyren Williams had to come out of the game, the Rams would throw Rivers a screen pass on the next play. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 24 | 89 | 1 | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | -30 | -22 | -8 | MIA |
| Pacheco averaged just 2.0 yards per carry and fumbled in the second half of this game. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Romeo Doubs | GB | 6 | 6 | 151 | 25.2 | 1 | 86 | DAL |
| Doubs had four catches up the middle for 66 yards: two first downs, a touchdown, and a 15-yard gain on first-and-16. | |||||||||
| 2. | Puka Nacua | LAR | 9 | 10 | 181 | 20.1 | 1 | 61 | DET |
| Nacua led the day with 87 receiving DYAR but he gets -26 rushing DYAR for his one carry which resulted in a 2-yard loss and a fumble. The system doesn’t know that the fumble went immediately out of bounds without much chance of the Lions recovering it, but if it had bounced differently, that’s a big turnover. | |||||||||
| 3. | Nico Collins | HOU | 6 | 7 | 96 | 16.0 | 1 | 59 | CLE |
| Collins goes from 48 YAR to 57 DYAR for facing the Cleveland defense. He had a big 38-yard gain on third down but also a loss of 1 and an incomplete pass. | |||||||||
| 4. | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 7 | 9 | 110 | 15.7 | 0 | 48 | LAR |
| All seven of St. Brown’s catches earned first downs. | |||||||||
| 5. | Rashee Rice | KC | 8 | 12 | 130 | 16.2 | 1 | 46 | MIA |
| 11 of Rice’s passes were short (15 or fewer air yards) with the deepest being a 16-yard pass that he turned into a 28-yard gain with 12 YAC. | |||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 5 | 9 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | -37 | DET |
| Kupp didn’t have a single gain over 10 yards, although he did convert that important fourth-and-5 in the second quarter with a 6-yard gain. | |||||||||
