Dolphins at Chiefs: DVOA Preview

What we thought might be the AFC Conference Championship ended up just being a wild-card matchup. The Dolphins started 5-1 but have since gone 6-5. The Chiefs started 5-1 and …. have since gone 6-5. 

So we enter this exciting wild-card matchup wondering how exciting it will be. A 21-14 international Chiefs win between these two teams in Week 9 wasn’t the fireworks show many expected, and the over/under on this rematch is set at 44 – the second lowest of the entire weekend. 

The Dolphins and Chiefs both have what it takes to go the distance. That’s obvious for the Chiefs (you know, because they are the defending champs and all), but it’s a new feeling for the ‘Fins, who enter these playoffs with much higher expectations than last year’s playoff squad.

While both teams sport solid 11-6 records, they have both been inconsistent. The Chiefs are healthier (the CVS receipt-lengthed list of Dolphins injuries is wild), but the Dolphins have more offensive weapons. 

Who’s it gonna be? Let’s dive in. 

(Something noteworthy about this game: At kickoff, wind chill is expected to be -12 with 20 MPH wind gusts. “Cold” is usually not too big of a deal, but that’s really cold and pretty windy, too.)

All stats are for the regular season only. Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA, not just offense. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

This is the strength vs. strength of the contest. Miami’s No. 2-rated offense vs. KC’s No. 7-rated defense. 

Defense won out in the first matchup between these two teams, as the Chiefs held the Dolphins to just 14 points. But De’Von Achane didn’t suit up in that contest, and Tyreek Hill was held to just 7.8 yards per reception – his lowest mark of the season.

A DVOA-related piece I almost wrote (but didn’t) was going to be on the Dolphins. Here was my pitch (early November) for that piece: “My idea was looking into the Dolphins and why they seem to be bad against good teams.”

That mostly held true all year, too. Miami’s lone positive DVOA game against a team with a winning record was the big Week 16 win against Dallas. (Miami finished at -7.7% in their Week 9 loss to the Chiefs.)  Miami was poor against winning teams even after adjusting for opponent strength:

Miami’s strength is offense, so if they are going to win this game, it’s going to have to be because of what they do when they have the ball. It’s not just the speed that kills in Miami. Tua Tagovailoa ranked second in DYAR among quarterbacks this year and second in DVOA (30.3%). The Dolphins rank No. 2 in pass DVOA (41.6%). Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill ranks first in nearly all meaningful DVOA-related WR metrics.

But – sensing a theme? – all of this goes right up against the strength of the Chiefs defense. They rank No. 5 in pass defense DVOA. They are also No. 5 against WR1s (-22.5%). As noted before, the Chiefs locked Hill down in the first contest, and it wouldn’t be a shock if it happens again. In the Week 9 game, Tagovailoa struggled when the Chiefs sent just four pass-rushers. On those plays, he averaged 4.0 yards per play (-18% DVOA), but when the Chiefs blitzed, he increased to 6.4 yards per play (55% DVOA). 

A weakness in the Chiefs pass D: They rank No. 25 against WR2s (14.2%), a fact that makes Waddle’s health all the more important in this contest. Revenge game or not, the WR that could make or break this game for the Dolphins is Mr. Penguin.

While the Dolphins may find it tough to move the ball through the air, the ground is where they could really control the game. It may be their best chance of winning. The Chiefs are 27th in rush defense DVOA and gave up 113 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, the Dolphins ranked 4.67 in adjusted line yards (fourth in the NFL) and first in second-level and open-field runs. Everyone knows about the home-run speed, so I won’t get into it, but this is by far the biggest disparity of the matchup. Every other part of this matchup is strength vs. strength. This one is strength vs. weakness. The frigid temperatures may make this matchup even more noteworthy.

And if the Dolphins end up missing Mostert, they should be just fine with Achane, who just posted the best rushing DVOA by an running back since at least 1981.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Back in mid-October, I wrote “Why Does Something Feel Off in Kansas City?” and things only continued to feel “off” since that was penned. The TL;DR version of the article: The offense is pretty meh, and the defense is pretty good. That’s different. We weren’t quite sure of that in October, but we are now. 

Kansas City’s offense has not been what we grew accustomed to, but this is a good matchup for them. The Dolphins defense is mediocre across the board: 19th overall and no better than 13th in any individual category.

The talk is that the Chiefs have “no playmakers,” and while the graveyard of potential is skyy high, they do still have Travis Kelce and breakout rookie Rashee Rice. And these two players are going to be the key to success for the Chiefs. The matchup is nearly perfect for these two. The Dolphins defense ranks 29th against WR1s with a 22.2% DVOA. They are even worse against tight ends (30th, 19.7%). From Weeks 12-17, Rice was sixth in the NFL in targets (9.3 per game) and first in RACR (receiving yards divided by air yards). Kelce hasn’t scored since November and only topped 100 yards twice all year, but he’s been an animal in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes. That doesn’t hold much water this season, of course, but even a non-peak Kelce should be a core difference-maker against the Dolphins.

Isaiah Pacheco has been a savior for the Chiefs this year, and he’s running hot right now. He has topped 100 yards in two of his last three games and is fresh off a season-high 25-touch game (including a season-high seven receptions). The Chiefs will want to either run off left tackle (4.52 adjusted line yards, sixth) or up the middle (4.85, second). They’ll find it tough if they try to run off right tackle, where the Dolphins defense ranks first and the Chiefs offense ranks 21st. But they may find it hard to run everywhere. The Dolphins got stingy against the run over the second half of the year and ranked first in rush defense DVOA from Weeks 10-18.

It’s really, really hard to make a case that the myriad of Chiefs secondary (tertiary, quaternary? Quinary? Whatever Kadarius Toney is?) offensive weapons have the potential to move the needle in this game. It’s going to come down to Kelce, Rice, and Pacheco. If you’re a Chiefs fan, this should make you feel solid.

But there is the factor of the weather. If those wind gusts and freezing weather make passing the ball hard, then the Chiefs might get robbed of their best advantage in this game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Chiefs are sixth in special teams DVOA (2.9%), an advantage over the Dolphins at No. 22 (-0.9%). Harrison Butker went 33-of-35 on field goals for the Chiefs. Jason Sanders went 24-of-28 for the Dolphins. Chiefs opponents kick an average of 1.5 field goals per game, third fewest in the NFL, while the Dolphins hold opponents to 1.2 per game, by far the lowest in the NFL. Kansas City’s biggest advantage is on kickoffs, where the Dolphins ranked dead last and allowed both a touchdown to Marvin Mims (Broncos) and a 78-yard return to Justice Hill (Ravvens).

This may go overlooked, but the cold weather and wind gusts may impact the kicking games more than offense or defense. Cold legs using cold feet to kick a cold, rock-hard ball will make punts, field goals, and extra points less automatic. Like we said at the top, “cold” is not usually too big of a deal, but this game is set to be a different level of cold.

OUTLOOK

This game may not go for 80 total points, but there are more than enough elite, All-Pro caliber players on the field in this game that touchdowns could strike at any time.

It’s also quite a fun battle of strength vs. strength with each team having a chink in the armor that the other team can take advantage of. When the Dolphins have the ball, they have a huge advantage on the ground. When the Chiefs have the ball, their best players have the best matchups. And it wouldn’t be a great outdoor NFL playoff game without Mother Nature having her say, would it? My prediction is Chiefs 24, Dolphins 21.