Top 5 NFL DFS slate-breakers for Week 14

The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true. 

Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.” 

Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.

Here are the 5 players most likely to break the slate in Week 14.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen gets a great bounceback opportunity after a memorable clash with the Patriots (and the wind). The Week 14 Bills-Bucs game can easily turn into a shootout, with the Bills serving as 3-point underdogs with an over/under of 52, which is the highest of the week and one of only two to be above 48. Allen is a certified superstar when the total is this high, per our NFL splits tool:

Aside from the obvious shootout potential, Allen already possesses one of the highest ceilings in all of football (two games with over 39.5 DraftKings points this year) and the matchup itself is solid against the Bucs 24th-ranked pass D that ranks in the bottom 10 in deep ball completion rate and deep ball TDs allowed.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

From 2010 to 2020, the only RB with more overall No. 1 weekly finishes (DraftKings) than Alvin Kamara is Derrick Henry (4 to Kamara’s 3). Simply put, Kamara has proven he’s a slate-breaker, and how he gets the best possible matchup not only of the year, but one of the best in some time. The Jets are straight garbage against RBs this year, allowing nearly 20% more fantasy PPG than any other team to the position. New York has allowed 181 total yards and 1.8 total TDs per game to enemy RBs.

Not only is the matchup great this week, but Kamara will also likely be avoided by the public. For starters, he hasn’t played since Week 9, and nobody likes playing someone fresh off injury. (He did practice every day prior to Week 13 but was still inactive.) Also, the Saints have turned to Taysom Hill, and Kamara did see 3 fewer targets per game when Hill as the starter last year. 

To be sure, both of these are valid concerns. Enough to make Kamara a risky cash game play even with such a good matchup. But the slate-breaking upside is certainly there this week, with the added benefit (in tournaments) of a lower roster percentage.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler and the Chargers have opened up as 10.5-point favorites against the New York Giants. When the Chargers are favored by at least 4.5 points, Ekeler’s stats jump off the page: 

The Giants are a bottom-10 unit across all major DFS sites in terms of fantasy points allowed. They also rank bottom-10 in receptions allowed to RBs, which as we know is Ekeler’s specialty.

And while New York’s recent game logs against RBs look decent, the Giants have been ripped apart by every RB that get close to Ekeler’s average number of 17 touches per game. Some RBs that reached that mark and damaged the Giants his year include 120 yards to Kamara, 112 and two total TDs to Ezekiel Elliott, 103 yards to Tony Pollard, 110 yards to Darrel Williams, 95 yards to Josh Jacobs, and 107 and 2 TDs to Darrell Henderson).

CeeDee Lamb (or Amari Cooper), WR, Dallas Cowboys

In truth, the blowup game could come from either CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper. I’d lean Lamb, but Cooper could end up being more of the “slate breaker” at lower price and a lower roster percentage. But I’ll focus on Lamb, as Cooper’s bout with COVID-19 dinged his stamina, and we just don’t know if he’ll be a full-time player again for Week 14.

With Cooper slowed in Week 13, Lamb handled 13 targets. He seems like a certainty to lead the team in targets again this week, and he has the seventh-best individual WR/CB matchup of the week. Lamb will run about 75% of his routes against Danny Johnson (72% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points allowed per route covered) and Kendall Fuller (69% catch rate, 0.25 FP/route). Overall, Washington has allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs.

And, for what it’s worth, Lamb has popped on the road this year, averaging nearly 7 receptions and nearly 100 yards per game away from Dallas, per the NFL splits tool.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

In a down year (by his standards), Travis Kelce still ranks first in fantasy points and PPG among TEs. And now he gets a shot to widen the gap with the dream matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, a franchise Kelce has owned throughout his career, most recently dropping 8 catches for 119 yards on them in Week 10. 

That game was aligned with Kelce’s average performance against the Raiders dating back to last season:

The Raiders have allowed the second-most points to TEs on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft — including five TDs to five different TEs over their last five games. Kelce has double-digit receptions, 150-plus yards and multiple TDs within his range of outcomes this week.