Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys Thanksgiving game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL -11, O/U 48.5
Pace: WAS: 27.5 sec/snap (21st), DAL: 26.1 sec/snap (9th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- With Antonio Gibson out last week, Brian Robinson ran a route on a season-high 67% of dropbacks.
- He played 5-of-6 third downs and 84% of snaps in the two-minute drill.
- The Commanders lead the NFL in neutral-script pass rate since Week 6 (68.5%).
- Opposing lead wide receivers are averaging 102.7 yards per game against Washington, the most in the NFL.
- Tony Pollard has forced 10 missed tackles over the last two weeks.
- He had eight total missed tackles forced Weeks 1-9.
Quarterback
Sam Howell once again saw a ton of volume Sunday (45 attempts) but struggled against the Giants, completing 31 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. He did add 35 rushing yards and a score, helping him finish as the QB10 in fantasy for the week. Howell has now finished as a top-12 signal caller in seven of his last eight games, as the Commanders continue to lean on the passing game. Since Week 6, no team is sporting a higher neutral script pass rate than Washington (68.5%), while their early down pass rate of 63.2% during that span is the third-highest rate in football. Howell has at least 40 pass attempts in seven of his last eight games, while averaging 43 attempts per game since Week 4. This is a really tough matchup for Howell and this Washington offensive line, as the Cowboys rank top-six in both completion percentage and yards per attempt allowed, while we know they can get after the quarterback. But Howell’s volume keeps him in the high-end QB2 range, especially as 11-point underdogs.
Running Back
Suddenly, Brian Robinson is catching a ton of passes. Over the last two weeks, he has hauled in 13 passes for 177 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets. With Antonio Gibson out, Robinson actually ran a route on a season-high 67% of dropbacks, playing 5-of-6 third downs and 84% of Washington’s snaps in the two-minute drill. Gibson has been limited to start the week but if he’s out again, you feel really good about Robinson’s workload, as he is coming off a game with 24 touches. While I wouldn’t expect that again, his role in the passing game would remain strong if Gibson is out, which is important considering Washington will likely be playing from behind in this game. Robinson is a low-end RB2 if Gibson is active but a top-20 play if he’s out.
Wide Receiver
With Washington throwing the football so much, Terry McLaurin’s volume has been very solid, too. Since Week 4, McLaurin is averaging about nine targets per game, while sporting a healthy 24% target share during that span. McLaurin has been more of a floor play this season, as he’s scored just twice, while failing to reach 80 yards in all but three games. Now he faces a Dallas defense that is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the year, while opposing offenses are scoring points on just 28.4% of drives against the Cowboys, the third-lowest rate in the league. Consider McLaurin a low-end WR2 on Thanksgiving.
Tight End
Logan Thomas caught 5-of-8 targets for 58 yards last week, as he continues to hover right around low-end TE1 range each week. He has at least six targets in four of his last five games, while recording at least 40 yards four times during that stretch. The Cowboys have been around league average against tight ends this season, while they did just allow a touchdown to Tommy Tremble in Week 11.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott didn’t have a fourth straight monster game, but he once again played well against the Panthers, completing 66% of his passes for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 6, Prescott ranks third in passing yards (1,543), first in touchdown passes (14) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.7). He has also finished as the QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1 and QB14 during that span, leading the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.67). The good times should keep rolling against an awful Washington pass defense that just allowed 246 yards and three touchdowns to Tommy DeVito last week, en route to a QB7 finish in fantasy. The Commanders have allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns on passes 20-plus air yards this season, as well as five touchdowns, a 61% completion rate and 14.09 yards per completion (fourth worst) off play-action. Prescott, meanwhile, is sixth in the league in play-action dropback rate this season (27.3%). He’s a top-five quarterback for Week 12.
Running Back
It happened. For the first time since Week 1, Tony Pollard scored a touchdown. He rushed 12 times for 61 yards and a score, adding four catches for 19 yards. It still wasn’t the huge upside game we have been waiting for, but there were some encouraging signs, even though it was against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Pollard has now forced 10 missed tackles over the last two weeks, which is notable considering he forced eight total missed tackles in Weeks 1-9. He still isn’t the same explosive player we saw last year but Pollard isn’t in jeopardy of losing his job, as Rico Dowdle saw four of his 10 touches come on the final drive with the starters out of the game. I still have Pollard as a rock-solid RB2 against a Washington defense that just allowed 140 total yards and two touchdowns to Saquon Barkley last week.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb stayed hot last week, catching six passes for 38 yards and a touchdown. Since Week 6, Lamb is averaging 9.4 receptions, 12.0 targets, 131 receiving yards and over 28 PPR points per game. He also has a 31% target share during that span, while drawing a target on 30% of his routes. Lamb is dealing with a small ankle issue right now, but it doesn’t seem to be serious. As long as he is active, he should destroy this Washington secondary. The Commanders have allowed six 100-yard games to wide receivers this season, while opposing number-one wideouts are averaging 102.7 yards per game against them, the most in the league. Washington is playing man defense 34% of the time, a top-eight rate in the league. Against man coverage this season, Lamb is flirting with a 30% target share, while averaging 2.03 fantasy points per target (13th). Enjoy the fantasy points.
And because the matchup is so good, I am fine with Brandin Cooks as an upside flex play here. He has been much more consistent as of late, running a route on 74% of dropbacks over the last three weeks. Cooks is sporting an aDOT of 12.2 yards during that span and faces a Washington pass defense that has allowed the most deep passing touchdowns (10), as well as the most scores off go routes. They are also allowing an 8.9-yard aDOT, the second-highest mark in the league.
Tight End
His touchdown streak came to an end last week, but Jake Ferguson remains a low-end TE1. He’s still scored in three of his last four games and for the season, has seen 10 targets from inside the 10-yard line, the second-most in all of football. Prescott, meanwhile, leads all quarterbacks with 37 end zone throws this season, while we know you can throw all over this Washington defense.
