Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Set your alarm clocks and break out the coffee, because the best game in the NFL this week comes to you from Frankfurt.
It was never the league’s explicit plan to give Germany the best game of the week, and one of the best games of the year, when they scheduled the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins to open up the Waldstadion to NFL action. Instead, it came about almost by accident and process of elimination. As Peter King explained, Kansas City wanted their one mandatory international game to be in Germany, in a year when they had nine home games. It couldn’t be against a divisional rival, the Chiefs didn’t want to give up their once-every-eight-years home game against the Bears, and the more-hyped Eagles, Bengals, Bills and Lions were earmarked for high-profile games throughout the season. That just left the Dolphins, winners by default.
No one knew when the game was announced that Mike McDaniel’s offense would be first in the league, with a DVOA of 30.4% — the 22nd best offense in DVOA history through eight games, mind you, and the best we’ve seen since the 2018 Chiefs were at 33.2%. The “Tyreek Hill meets his old team” narrative was in place, but the idea that the Hill and Tua Tagovailoa connection might be even more potent than the Hill and Patrick Mahomes version wasn’t on anyone’s radar. We had Miami as an above-average team before the year started, 12th in projected DVOA in the FTN Almanac. That would have been a pretty neat matchup on its own, but we didn’t see a game between two of the top five teams in DVOA coming, or a matchup that will see the winner take first place in the conference.
If you’re thinking it’s rare for a game of this quality to end up overseas, well, you’re right. The Dolphins-Chiefs game will be the 49th regular-season game played outside the United States, which includes all the Germany games, the London games, the Mexico games, and that period of time when Buffalo played a game in Toronto every year. It is only the eighth time when both teams will come in with a positive DVOA. It’s actually been more common for both teams to be below average, with 14 matchups between teams with negative DVOA. A random foreign game is more likely to be Jaguars-Falcons than Dolphins-Chiefs, in other words. That has been changing – five of the eight games between two positive DVOA teams have happened since 2019 – but for most of the history of the international series, the NFL has been careful not to let something too good get away.
Is this the best game ever scheduled outside the United States? That depends on how you define it. If you just add up the DVOA of the teams involved in the week the game happened, this isn’t even the best overseas game this year. Remember when the Bills were the greatest 3-1 team ever? Their 59.1% DVOA entering the Week 4 game beats the combined DVOAs of Kansas City (27.9%) and Miami (24.0%) by itself, with Jacksonville’s 1.4% adding a cherry on top. And that game falls short of the 2017 Jaguars-Ravens game, where Baltimore entered Week 3 with a 63.3% DVOA and what was then the best defensive DVOA of all time through two weeks, thanks to a 20-0 win over the Bengals and a 24-10 win over the Browns. Baltimore, plus Jacksonville’s 5.3% DVOA, ends up with the greatest combined DVOA of any overseas game at 58.0%.
You may not immediately remember that killer Ravens defense because, well, they weren’t actually the second-coming of the Monsters of the Midway they looked like after two weeks. Baltimore finished 2017 with a respectable 13.1% DVOA, went 9-7, and missed the postseason. It turns out, DVOA from two weeks, before opponent adjustments are put into place, may not be the best indicator of a team’s overall quality. Nor should the ‘best’ game involve a 58-point DVOA difference between the two teams; we would want to see something a bit more competitive on paper rather than a historic team steamrolling over an average one.
We can do better, right? Two teams with good DVOAs is a start, but only a beginning. We want to maximize the combined DVOA, but also minimize the difference between the two teams; we’re looking for a high total and a low difference. A matchup between two teams with a DVOA of 20% is more intriguing than one between a team with 40% and another with 0%. We’re looking for even matchups! So for our ranking system, we’ll take the DVOA of each team at the time the game was played, and then subtract the difference between them, and that’ll spit out our final rankings. So, what are the best international matchups of all time, and just how far ahead is Chiefs-Dolphins? I’m glad you asked.
10. Buffalo Bills (4-2) vs. Washington Redskins (3-3) (2011, Toronto)
Buffalo DVOA: 13.1%
Washington DVOA: -4.7%
Total Score: -9.4
Canada. Not just a source for maple syrup, hockey teams and surprisingly good sketch comedy series, but its own country, complete with its own culture and everything. Who knew?
It’s too bad that from 2008-2012, when the Buffalo Bills played one game a year in Toronto, they had a culture of not being very good at football. They never had a winning season and never finished above a -7.8% DVOA during that six-year stretch. But, briefly, things looking like they were going to be different in 2011. The Bills were just one game out of first place in the AFC East and were fourth in offensive DVOA behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson, and there was legitimate optimism in Buffalo that they’d have a winning season for the first time since 2004. For their part, Washington had started 3-1, but injuries were mounting up and slowing them down; they were trending in the wrong direction.
Buffalo’s defense ended up sacking John Beck nine times as the Bills took the game 23-0, but that was the high point of the season for Buffalo; injuries piled up and they finished the year a disappointing 6-10. They’ll always have October, though!
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) vs. Chicago Bears (3-3) (2011, London)
Tampa Bay DVOA: 1.2%
Chicago DVOA: -2.9%
Total Score: -5.8
The 2011 Buccaneers were young and feisty and exciting for about a month and a half. They entered their London game tied atop the NFC South after beating the Falcons and Saints. They were coming off of a 10-6 season, had the youngest average age in the lead, and everything seemed to be pointing arrows up. Sure, they had lost to the 49ers 48-3 two weeks prior, but occasional bumps in the road are to be expected from young teams still pulling themselves together. I’ve got a good feeling about Raheem Morris, Josh Freeman, and the rest of the squad. Meanwhile, the Bears were coming off of a big 39-10 win over the Vikings. DVOA wasn’t overly impressed, despite Chicago boasting Matt Forte, the NFL’s combined leader in rushing and receiving yards, but they were fine. Ish.
In the game itself, Forte ran all over the Bucs, going for 145 yards and a touchdown in an eventual 24-18 win. After the game, Morris said that the problem with Tampa is that they were “too young” and “foolish” and vowed things would turn around from there. They didn’t, as Tampa lost every single game the rest of the way to finish 4-12. The Bears would turn the win over Tampa into a nice little win streak, before collapsing down the stretch to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
8. Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) (2019, London)
Carolina DVOA: 0.3%
Tampa Bay DVOA: 2.8%
Total Score: 0.6
The first of our eight games featuring two teams with positive DVOA – and, by process of elimination, the worst.
This was Jameis Winston’s last season as the starting quarterback in Tampa Bay; his 33-touchdown, 30-interception season, so at least you could say it wasn’t boring. And the Full Winston experience was in effect already – 55 points against the Rams in Week 4! Three interceptions against the 49ers in Week 1! Crazy times. The Panthers, meanwhile, had finally sat a hobbled Cam Newton down and were riding with Kyle Allen, who had led the Panthers to three straight wins, and I’m using “led” in the weakest way physically possible. Still, a winning streak was a winning streak.
And it continued in London, as Winston ended up throwing five interceptions behind a backup offensive line that Carolina beat early and often. James Bradberry had interceptions on the first and last play from scrimmage, providing bookends to the 37-26 Carolina victory. Carolina would win just one more game the rest of the season, while Tampa rode the Winstoncoaster to a 7-9 record, losing in overtime on the last day of the season on a Winston pick-six. Poetry.
7. New England Patriots (4-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-4) (2012, London)
New England DVOA: 28.0%
St. Louis DVOA: 1.0%
Total Score: 2.0
The Patriots were much better than their record indicated when they were shipped off to London in 2012. Third in offensive DVOA at 23.4% behind Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Lloyd, they had put up at least 350 yards of offense in every game leading up to this one. The defense was more middling, and that’s why they were hovering around .500 – but those three losses came by a combined four points, including two losses during the Replacement Referee games. The Rams were a bit more traditionally middling, which is fitting for Jeff Fisher’s first season in charge. Considering they had won just two games the year before, a 3-4 start was way ahead of expectations for this point. It was the defense that was leading them there, coming in eight at a -8.0% DVOA and holding opponents to just seven receiving touchdowns in their first seven games. Could they be the ones to slow down the Patriots’ offensive juggernaut?
No. The Pats scored on their first five possessions, Gronkowski had 146 yards and pair of scores, as New England destroyed the Rams 45-7. Yeah, that seems about right.
6. Buffalo Bills (3-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) (2023, London)
Buffalo DVOA: 59.1%
Jacksonville DVOA: 1.4%
Total Score: 2.8
Best 3-1 team ever? Best 3-1 team ever! After throttling the 70-burger Dolphins the week before, the Bills were the hottest team in football; everyone’s favorite to start going on a tear. The Jaguars, meanwhile, had struggled with the Chiefs and Texans and their status as AFC South favorites was something in jeopardy as they started their second straight London game, the first team to stay overseas for back-to-back weeks.
And perhaps it was jetlag that caused the Bills to be sluggish. Or perhaps it was everyone on Buffalo getting hurt on the Tottenham Hotspurs turf. Or perhaps it is just because we know now the Bills are a hot-and-cold dramabomb of a team, with the third-most variance in the league so far. But the Jaguars were able to squeak out a 25-20 victory and haven’t lost since, currently sitting tied atop the AFC at 6-2.
5. Houston Texans (5-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) (2019, London)
Houston DVOA: 6.5%
Jacksonville DVOA: 4.9%
Total Score: 9.8
A rare overseas divisional matchup!
2019 doesn’t seem that long ago, until you remember this was still when everything was good between the Texans and Deshaun Watson. We were also in the midst of our first bout of Minshew Mania, as Gardner Minshew was still filling in for an injured Nick Foles in Jacksonville. Different times, man. The big question entering this one was how the Texans would be hurt by the absence of J.J. Watt and Lonnie Johnson – a defense that only ranked 21st in the league going in, missing essentially all of it’s pass rush and with a banged up secondary? Time for Minshew, DJ Chark and Chris Conley to shine, right?
Wrong. The Texans won in a laugher, 26-3, with Minshew throwing two picks and fumbling the ball twice. The teams went in vastly different directions from here, with the Jaguars bottoming out and falling to 6-10, while the Texans went 10-6, won the AFC South, and took a 24-0 lead over the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. I haven’t checked in on them since then, but I assume everything has gone fine after that.
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) (2017, London)
Baltimore DVOA: 63.3%
Jacksonville DVOA: 5.3%
Total Score: 10.6
So, that’s a pretty big number, there. Under DVOA v8.0, the 2017 Ravens had the sixth-best defense in history through two games at -59.9%. This is before opponent adjustments kick in, but that’s an impressive total in and of itself. They forced five turnovers from Andy Dalton in Week 1 on their way to an easy 20-0 win, and then five more against DeShone Kizer and the Browns in Week 2 in a 24-10 victory. You may think that 44 points is not a ton of offense in a world where you’re forcing five turnovers a game, and you’d be correct. Joe Flacco and company were just kind of along for the ride. But with a defense that featured C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs and Eric Weddle, who needed an excellent offense? Five turnovers a game is definitely sustainable. Meanwhile, this was the #Sacksonville year in Jacksonville, though we didn’t know that yet. They certainly didn’t feel like worldbeaters, having allowed 37 points to the Titans the week before, and were sitting at a comparatively paltry -10.8% defensive DVOA. In a game with two bland-at-best offenses, this was going to be a defensive slugfest, with the Ravens continuing their historic start.
Or, hear me out, the Jaguars could win 44-7 behind four Blake Bortles touchdown passes. Baltimore only crossed midfield three times, and not until the third quarter. Flacco had just 28 passing yards; Ryan Mallett had 36 coming off the bench in relief. It turns out, stopping DeShone Kizer isn’t all that impressive. Who knew?
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) (2022, Munich)
Seattle DVOA: 17.3%
Tampa Bay DVOA: 7.1%
Total Score: 14.2
So Germany has lucked out so far, with their first two games being two of the three best matchups in NFL international history! Man, I hope they can keep that momentum up for their third game, which is, uh, Colts and Patriots.
Partially because of its long history with U.S. military bases, Germany is the hotbed for American football in Europe. NFL Europa basically contracted down to a Germany-only league by its end, the German Football League continues to be decently popular, and the European League of Football championship saw the Rhine Fire beat the Stuttgart Surge in front of 31,500 fans in Duisburg. So it’s not a surprise that they showed up ready and excited for their first regular season NFL game. The Geno Smith redemption tour was in full swing in Seattle, while Tom Brady and the inconsistent Buccaneers were clinging desperately to the NFC South lead.
After the Buccaneers’ 21-16 win, Brady called this “one of the great football experiences that I’ve ever had,” and he’s had a few to compare it to. He had such a good time, it overshadowed that his streak of 399 passes without an interception was broken three short of the NFL record, and that he fell down embarrassingly when going out for a pass on a trick play. The crowd singing along to John Denver in the fourth quarter was one of the highlights of the entire season. A hot crowd can make anything more entertaining.
2. New Orleans Saints (3-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-4) (2008, London)
New Orleans DVOA: 11.2%
San Diego DVOA: 7.5%
Total Score: 15.0
A matchup between two 3-4 teams hardly seems worthy of the crown of best international game, does it? And yet, this game had more to it than two good teams with unfortunate records – this was Drew Brees’ first game against the Chargers since leaving after the 2005 season. Brees versus Phillip Rivers would have been worth the price of admission in and of itself, but this game also promised to be a massive shootout. Both the Saints and Chargers came into the game with top-10 offensive DVOAs, each averaging over 25 points per game and capable of marching up and down the field almost at will. And neither defense was in the top 20, meaning that this promised to be a high-scoring game where the first team to blink lost.
And that’s mostly what we got. Not all the games on this list lived up to the hype, but this one did, with both teams going for over 400 yards in a 37-32 Saints win. It had a little bit of everything – Brees throwing for 339 and three touchdowns, as Deuce McAllister filled in admirably for a missing Reggie Bush. LaDainian Tomlinson had 170 yards from scrimmage on the other side, as San Diego fought back from a 30-17 deficit in the fourth quarter to have the ball, with a chance to win, with 1:18 left. There was basically only one defensive highlight all afternoon, coming when Vincent Jackson picked Rivers off on that final drive to seal the Saints’ victory. We’ll be fortunate if this week’s game is anywhere near this exciting.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-2) (2023, Frankfurt)
Kansas City DVOA: 27.9%
Miami DVOA: 24.0%
Total Score: 48.0
This isn’t just the only international game ever where both teams were over 20% DVOA at kickoff; it’s the first time both teams were even over 10%. Of the 98 teams who have played an international game, only 10 of them have been in this rarified air, and only three others were given even a slightly-above-average opponent.
This has the same shootout potential of Chargers-Saints, and the same storyline of a former star facing his old team for the first time. It’s just that both teams are better overall than either of the 2008 squads were. The stakes are higher, too, being for first place in the AFC rather than struggling to get back to .500.
Games of this quality simply do not go overseas. This one essentially laps the field with room to spare. We can only hope the actual game lives up to the much-deserved hype.
