Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs game for Week 3.
Week 3 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC -13, O/U 47.5
Pace: CHI: 24.8 sec/snap (8th), KC: 26.1 sec/snap (13th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- In 2022, 78% of Justin Fields’ rushing attempts were designed.
- So far this season, just 38.5% of his rushing attempts have been designed.
- Eight of Fields’ 17 passing touchdowns from last year came against the blitz.
- Kansas City is blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in football so far (37.6%).
- The Bears are allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt (9.21) and second-most yards per completion (13.7).
Quarterback
Justin Fields recently addressed the media, discussing the offensive woes and what has to change going forward. And as dumb as it may sound, it honestly has me encouraged.
Look, Fields has not played well through two weeks. He is missing throws, making the wrong reads and taking awful sacks. But at the same time, Luke Getsy’s scheme is laughable. The route combinations are overlapping, and Chicago is using motion when they shouldn’t. But most importantly, for whatever reason, the Bears have gone away from calling designed runs for Fields. Through the first two weeks of 2022, Fields had 12 designed runs. Through two weeks this season? Just five designed rushes for Fields. Last year, 78% of Justin Field’s rushing attempts were designed but so far this season, just 38.5% of his rushing attempts have been designed. Fields said he is going to play less robotic this week, so I think we see a ton of designed runs called for him against Kansas City. The Chiefs have been terrific against quarterbacks to start the year, surrendering just 11.7 fantasy points per game to Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. Getting Chris Jones changes this defense, as over the last five seasons, Kansas City’s pressure rate drops from 35% to 27% with Jones off the field, while teams convert third downs 10% more often. They did have Jones all of last year, though, when the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers (26.1). Fields was also quietly strong against the blitz last year, as eight of Fields’ 17 passing touchdowns from last year came against the blitz, while completing 61% of his passes. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in footballI. I’m still trusting Fields as a top-eight quarterback here.
Running Back
Chicago’s backfield went from three running backs to two last week. With D’Onta Foreman a healthy scratch, Khalil Herbert played 60% of the snaps and handled eight touches. Roschon Johnson, meanwhile, played 42.3% of the snaps and recorded six touches. In Week 1, Johnson was the team’s third-down running back, but we saw Herbert and him split third down snaps in Week 2. As huge underdogs on the road, this feels like a game where Johnson could see more work if he is truly the preferred option on passing downs. And last season, the Chiefs allowed the most receptions (6.6), second-most targets (8.0) and third-most receiving yards (46.8) per game to opposing backfields. Herbert, meanwhile, is still a good player if you ask me. He is avoiding 0.31 tackles per attempt thus far, the fifth-highest rate among qualified running backs. But the Bears haven’t been in game scripts that allowed Herert to even reach 10 carries. He is a risky RB3 this week, while Johnson remains a hold, especially considering there was a report suggesting he could take over the backfield.
Wide Receiver
After a quiet Bears debut in Week 1, DJ Moore caught 6-of-7 targets for 104 yards Sunday. A matchup with Jaire Alexander really slowed him down in Week 1 but he got going last week. Kansas City’s secondary is playing really well right now, but it isn’t a matchup Moore can’t win. He’ll see primary coverage from L’Jarius Sneed, who has been strong to start the year, but in 2022, allowed the most receptions (73) in coverage. Hopefully Getsy starts using Moore differently, as he has just one screen target through two weeks. Moore is a mid-range WR2 this weekend.
Tight End
Cole Kmet has a healthy 13 targets through two weeks, catching nine passes for 82 yards. Kmet currently ranks sixth among tight ends in snap share (84.9%), while his 20.3% target share is sixth at the position. Kmet faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. And in 2022, the Chiefs coughed up the fifth-most touchdowns per game to the position (0.53). As the clear second option in this passing game, Kmet could flirt with 8-10 targets in this game, assuming the Bears are chasing points.
Quarterback
It is always terrifying when you are facing Patrick Mahomes in fantasy. But especially this week.
This Bears defense is absolutely putrid. They have allowed at least 25 points in 12 consecutive games, and so far this year, Chicago is allowing 2.43 points per drive (seventh most). The Bears are allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt (9.21) and 2nd-most yards per completion (13.7), which is bad, but it sounds even worse when you consider they have faced… checks notes… Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield. Chicago continues to struggle getting after the quarterback, sporting the league’s seventh-lowest pressure rate so far (16.4%). It seems all but assured that the Bears make it 13 consecutive games allowing at least 25 points.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury but returned Thursday and should be good to go. As a huge home favorite, this is a good spot for Pacheco, though the usage is often so maddening. He had 12 carries for 70 yards last week, though eight of those carries came in the fourth quarter. The good news? It could be a game where Pacheco sees 15 fourth quarter carries, as the Chiefs are likely to be running out the clock. Chicago just allowed 73 yards and a touchdown to Rachaad White, after allowing a pair of scores to Aaron Jones in Week 1. Pacheco only played about 52% of the snaps last week, while Jerick McKinnon was on the field for 31.3%. We’ll see if Pacheco can get in the end zone because I do think he’ll be efficient on the ground. But he’s yet to see a carry from inside the 5-yard line this season. He’s a mid-range RB2 based on the elite matchup.
Wide Receiver
He found the end zone last week, but I still don’t know how you can have any confidence playing Skyy Moore in fantasy. His day was made off a 54-yard touchdown, but Moore still only saw four targets, while his playing time actually dropped this week. Moore played 58% of the snaps, while running a route on 33-of-45 dropbacks. Through two weeks, he only has a 10% target share, while the Chiefs continue to run a seven-man rotation at wide receiver. That perhaps goes down to a five-man rotation if Kadarius Toney and Richie James don’t play, but regardless, Moore is a WR4 at best, despite the favorable matchup.
My interest in the Chiefs wideouts simply comes down to Mahomes stacks in DFS tournaments. Obviously pairing him with Travis Kelce is the logical route, but all of the Kansas City wideouts are cheap. Justin Watson is running as the WR3 right now and will see targets down the field. Watson is averaging 5.39 air yards per route run, while seeing 36% of the team’s air yards. Chicago has struggled to defend the deep ball. In 2022, the Bears allowed the sixth-highest completion rate on deep passes (42.4%), and so far this season, they are allowing the fourth-most yards on passes 20-plus yards in the air (163).
Tight End
Travis Kelce was a bit limited in his first game last week, playing 64% of the snaps. He still dominated the usage, seeing a 22.5% target share and 34.6% TPRR. I’d probably start him this week and every week after.
