The Read Option, Week 3: Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings game for Week 3.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings

LAC -1, O/U 53.5
Pace: LAC: 24.9 sec/snap (9th), MIN: 24.0 sec/snap (6th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• The Chargers posted a 67.7% neutral-script pass rate against Tennessee’s elite run defense last week.
• Joshua Kelley played 79% of the snaps with Austin Ekeler out. 
• 17.5% of the passes against the Vikings have traveled 20-plus air yards, the second-highest rate in the league.
• 17.4% of the passes against the Chargers have traveled 20-plus air yards (3rd-worst).
• Jordan Addison has been targeted on four go routes this year, the third-most among wide receivers.
• Justin Jefferson’s 22 first-read targets are the third-most in the NFL.

Quarterback

In Week 1, the Chargers relied on the run against Miami’s vulnerable run defense. In Week 2, the Chargers abandoned the run against the Titans, sporting a 67.7% neutral-script pass rate. Plain and simple, Kellen Moore is going to find what your defense struggles to defend and take advantage of it. Having said that, the Vikings are pretty bad all over the place on defense. Last week, Justin Herbert averaged almost 11 air yards per attempt against a Tennessee defense that gives up a ton of deep passes. Now he’ll face a Vikings team that has allowed 17.5% of passes against them to travel 20-plus air yards, the second-highest rate in football. They have already allowed two deep passing touchdowns this season, though the interesting aspect is that Brian Flores has called mostly zone defense, especially Cover-2. Of course, Flores continues to dial up the blitz, as Minnesota is blitzing over 49% of the time, the highest rate in the league. Herbert has been very good against the blitz, completing 62% of passes when facing the blitz in 2021 and 2022. And on 19 dropbacks against the blitz in 2023, Herbert is completing 78% of passes with a touchdown. This game has a massive total and if Ekeler remains sidelined, the Chargers could dial up more downfield passes. 

Running Back

I understand the frustration if you started Joshua Kelley last week but the process was correct. In Ekeler’s absence, Kelley played 79% of the snaps and handled 13-of-20 running back touches. He even ran 29 routes, so it was pretty unlucky to see him catch zero passes. Assuming Ekeler remains sidelined, you should go right back to Kelley, especially in this matchup. With Minnesota playing so much Cover-2, it welcomes the run, which was the case last Thursday when D’Andre Swift rushed for 175 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings are allowing the fifth-most yards before contact per rush so far this season and Kelley should be in line for 17-20 opportunities again if Ekeler doesn’t play, which seems to be the case. Of course, if Ekeler is active, you start him, even though there’s a chance he is limited. It would also make Kelley a viable flex play if you are desperate. 

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen is unstoppable. He caught 8-of-10 targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns last week, and has now caught 14-of-20 targets to start the year. Allen fully recovered from his hamstring injury in Week 11 of last season and since then, the veteran wideout is averaging an impressive 7.4 receptions, 10.2 targets, 86.2 receiving yards and 19.5 PPR points per game. The interesting thing about Allen’s usage this season is the fact that he is seeing more usage down the field. Through two weeks, Allen has been targeted on four go routes, while he’s playing on the perimeter a little more. The good times should keep rolling this week against a very exploitable Minnesota secondary.

Mike Williams’ usage has also shifted a bit under Kellen Moore. In 2022, Williams averaged 9.1 yards before the catch per reception, while playing out of the slot just 15.1% of the time. However, so far this season, Williams is averaging 6.0 yards before the catch per reception, while operating from the slot nearly 36% of the time. It led to more of a high floor game from Williams last week (8-83 on 13 targets), which isn’t what we’re accustomed to seeing from him. Williams has been more productive against defenses that play a lot of man coverage, which isn’t the case with the Vikings anymore. Last year, Williams’ target share against zone was only 15.3% and so far this season, his target share against zone coverage is about eight percent lower than against man. Still, the matchup is so favorable, as the Vikings are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing WR2s (91.0). Williams settles in as my WR16 this week, while Allen is my WR8.

Tight End

I really wish the Chargers would just give Gerald Everett the full-time role because he’s really good at football. However, that isn’t happening, as he was actually out-snapped (34-28) by Donald Parham last week, while Parham ran 19 routes to Everett’s 15. Parham was already cutting into Everett’s playing time down the stretch of last season but now he’s playing more than him, which is obviously a concern. Everett’s 9.4 yards after the catch per reception rank second among tight ends, so he’s talented enough to make four or five targets work. But he’s a mid-range TE2 at best for now. 

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins has now attempted 44 passes in consecutive games, throwing for 344 and 364 yards. He was awesome last week, throwing four touchdowns, and is now the QB1 in fantasy. Minnesota cannot run the football and so far this season, they are sporting an insane 75% neutral script pass rate. Cousins should continue to throw quite a bit against a Chargers defense that has allowed the most explosive pass plays in the league through two weeks. They have allowed Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Tannehill to finish as the QB1 and QB15 in fantasy. Los Angeles is allowing the second-highest aDOT in the league right now (10.6 yards), while 17.4% of the passes against the Chargers have traveled 20-plus air yards (third worst). We’ll see if Minnesota can find some semblance of a run game this week but regardless, Cousins is in line for another monster outing.

Running Back

It has been a slow start to the season for Alexander Mattison, who has zero explosive runs and is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry so far. Granted, he has faced two of the better run defenses in the league in Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, and now he faces a welcoming Chargers run defense that ranks seventh in percentage of runs to gain 10-plus yards (13%). Mattison has still been playing the majority of the running back snaps for the Vikings, though it is fair to wonder how long that will last after the team just traded for Cam Akers. It is unlikely Akers plays much of a role in his first game, so Mattison should still be in line for most of the work Sunday. He is a volume-based RB2 against the Chargers.

Wide Receiver

Start Justin Jefferson. He has 20 receptions on 25 targets through two weeks, while his 22 first-read targets are the third-most in the league. I don’t need to waste anymore of your time analyzing how great Jefferson is and how good the matchup is.

But let’s talk about the rest of the Vikings wideouts, shall we?

Jordan Addison “started” last Thursday’s game against the Eagles, though K.J. Osborn still outsnapped him 56-40, running 44 routes to Addison’s 36. However, Addison did play a slightly larger role in his second career game but regardless, the Vikings are going to run a ton of 11 personnel, which means both Osborn and Addison will be on the field. The rookie has been efficient, scoring two long touchdowns already, while seeing a solid 11 targets. His four deep targets are tied with Jefferson for the team-lead, while four of Addison’s 11 targets have come off go routes. Addison has seen 27% of Minnesota’s air yards and now faces a Chargers defense that has coughed up a 58.3% completion rate of deep passes so far this season (seventh worst), as well as the most receiving yards off deep passes (280). He’ll see primary coverage from J.C. Jackson, who is being targeted every 3.5 coverage snaps this year, the second-worst rate in the league. I have Addison as a high-end WR3 ahead of this potential shootout.

I also think you can start Osborn as a flex play in deep leagues. He’s still the WR2 on this team in terms of playing time, while seeing six targets in consecutive games. The Vikings are throwing the ball enough for all three wideouts and T.J. Hockenson to find success, especially in matchups as favorable as this. And because they are throwing so much, there are only two wide receivers that have run more routes than Osborn. One of them? Justin Jefferson.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson had a monster game last Thursday, catching seven-of-eight targets for 66 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His 17 targets through two weeks rank second among all tight ends and since joining the Vikings ahead of Week 9, Hockenson has seen at least eight targets in nine of 12 games. While the Chargers have not been torched by opposing tight ends just yet, they have also faced the Titans and Dolphins, two teams who don’t exactly heavily utilize the tight end position. And just from watching, I have not been impressed with the linebacker play from the Chargers. I don’t know if Hockenson has an encore performance Sunday, but he should be really good once again.