Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every pick you make in fantasy football comes with some level of risk – even your first-rounders. These risks come in various shapes and sizes, and some of the more common ones include risk of injury, supporting cast concerns, and worries about a player’s age (either too young or too old).
The experts at FTN Fantasy account for risk when building their rankings. Going through a risk evaluation is a valuable way to cater your draft board to your own personal risk tolerance, and to help you do that for your 2023 drafts, I’ll walk you through what I look for when evaluating risk. To do this, I’m looking at the top five quarterbacks in our expert’s rankings, and asking myself one simple question…
“What could go wrong?”
By answering that question and evaluating how likely it is to happen, I can build a risk score that influences my own draft board. Here’s a peek into what that exercise looks like:
(Check out the rest of the series: RB | WR | TE)
QB1: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The No. 1 thing that could cause Josh Allen’s season to go downhill would be something happening with Stefon Diggs. Allen didn’t become a fantasy football stud until Diggs arrived in Buffalo, and anything going wrong with the star receiver could severely hamper Allen’s ability to move the ball through the air with consistency.
Risk Level — Low
There were rumblings of some frustration coming from Diggs’ camp this offseason, but things seem to have settled down as of late. The reliance of him in this offense is concerning, but not enough to significantly move the needle when drafting Allen.
QB2: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Everything seems to be going right for Patrick Mahomes right now. Coming up with anything to serve as a reason why he may disappoint this year is tough, but the one explanation could be simple regression. Rushing production is drastically more valuable in fantasy football than passing, and without a significant rushing floor, any regression in the passing game would hurt Mahomes more than some of the names ranked below him.
Risk Level — Lower than Low
I don’t know about you, but I’m not betting on Patrick Mahomes disappointing as a passer this year. Draft with confidence.
QB3: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
After bursting onto the scene in 2023, the biggest question surrounding Jalen Hurts right now is, “Can he do it again?” A large portion of Hurts’ fantasy production last year came through the ground, and now that he’s a $255 million man, the Eagles may think twice about using him as a rusher to help reduce injury risk. Adding D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny to this backfield should only make it easier for Hurts to hand the ball off instead of tucking it himself.
Risk Level — Moderate
The Eagles aren’t removing Hurts run plays from the playbook anytime soon, but scaling him back is a real possibility. Even if they do though, the floor should still be there, and he’s proven he can get it done through the air as well.
QB4: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Everyone’s excited about the addition of Todd Monken as offensive coordinator in Baltimore. The common belief is that he’ll bring a more modern, spread-style offense to Baltimore that can help unleash Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens’ offense. The problem is, this will be the first time Jackson has operated in anything other than a Greg Roman style offense at the NFL level, and that change comes with risk.
Risk Level — High
The common narrative is this change can only be a good thing, but I’m not entirely sold on that. While Roman-led offenses catch a lot of flak, he was calling the shots when Jackson and the Ravens set records back in 2019. To me, the otherworldly upside Jackson possess makes the risk well worth it, but that doesn’t mean the risk isn’t high.
QB5: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Considering the injury already happened, the obvious risk with Joe Burrow is in how he recovers from the calf injury he suffered a few weeks back. The Bengals’ passing attack is a well-oiled machine that poses little risk when things are running smoothly, but if Burrow is forced to miss games or sees a decrease in performance, that could cause his fantasy output to dip enough to bump him a few spots down the leaderboard.
Risk Level — Moderate
Without a rushing floor to fall back on, Burrow needs to maintain elite precision as a passer to have any shot at finishing the season as a top 5 QB. The news around his injury is still a bit murky, and considering the injury already happened and isn’t a projection, it’s hard to flag this as anything less than moderate risk.
