Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With the NFL Draft and the majority of free agency in the rear-view mirror, this time of year is eerily quiet in the fantasy football landscape. However, just because not much will change over the next few weeks doesn’t mean this isn’t a good time for active dynasty managers to improve their rosters. One of the keys to success in dynasty fantasy football is winning on the edges, and with little changing in the NFL landscape right now, it’s the perfect time to focus on the less exciting portion of your roster – the very bottom.
To help improve the end of your bench, I’ve created a list of players who you may want to acquire – either via a cheap trade or on the waiver wire – who offer some intriguing upside. These certainly won’t be the most glamorous players you can acquire, but placing strategic bets with your late-round picks and FAAB money is a great way to maximize the value of your taxi squad and last few roster spots.
Note: 2023 rookies were excluded from this list.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Starting off this list is a back who saw their value increase substantially this offseason yet can still be acquired for fairly cheap in many leagues. Jerome Ford was a fifth-round pick for the Browns last year who found himself buried behind some talented backs on the depth chart. Just one year later, both Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson are off the roster, and the No. 2 role in Cleveland’s backfield – a role that’s been very fantasy friendly in the past – looks like it’s Ford’s for the taking.
While the RB2 role itself provides some intrigue for Ford, where his true dynasty value lies is in his path to an RB1 role in the near future. Nick Chubb is nearing the end of his contract, and there’s a clear path for Ford to become his heir apparent in the backfield. That’s the type of upside I’ll gladly pay a late round pick (or two) for.
Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce – fantasy football’s top TE – will be 34 in October, and it’s only a matter of time before the Chiefs are in need of an heir apparent to the TE1 role. Enter Noah Gray.
Gray was a fifth-round pick for the Chiefs back in 2021 and appears to be on the trajectory to play a big role in Kansas City’s high-powered offense in the near future. Despite being the No. 2 TE on the depth chart behind Kelce, Gray logged over 50% (597) of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in 2022. Their offense often featured multiple TE sets, and considering the Chiefs just won a Super Bowl using these sets, I don’t think they’ll be moving on from those looks anytime soon, potentially putting Gray on the field even more in 2023.
However, much like with Ford, Gray’s real value comes from his path to a lead role once another superstar exits the picture. It may take a year (or a few) before he gets to that point, but right now Gray is in the driver’s seat to the next TE1 once Kelce’s gone. While he’ll never post Kelce-like numbers, there’s no denying that being the TE1 in a Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid-led offense can provide massive fantasy value for Noah Gray. If you have the patience to wait for the payout, Gray is a perfect long-term investment to stash on the end of your bench.
Jacoby Brissett, QB, Washington Commanders
In superflex/2QB leagues, acquiring a quarterback on the cheap is no easy task. Sometimes you need to take low-cost risks to add depth to the position group, and Jacoby Brissett fits that mold perfectly. All indications are the Commanders are going to enter the season with Sam Howell – a fifth-round pick in 2022 – as their starting quarterback. However, Howell’s yet to prove he can hang at the NFL level, and head coach Ron Rivera may be coaching for his job this year. If Howell’s season goes as well as it goes for most 5th round QBs, Rivera may have no choice but to bench him in favor of Brissett.
While Brissett lacks the upside to be a QB1 in fantasy, he can serve as a solid depth piece who you can use as a spot-start in a pinch when bye weeks and injuries come rolling around. Worst case scenario is Howell winds up looking great, and the value you lost in FAAB or draft capital is a sunk cost. If you’re a team in need of QB depth but don’t want to make a significant investment, Brissett makes for a solid low-risk acquisition at a position that can be tricky to acquire on the cheap.
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Remember last offseason when people were avoiding Christian McCaffrey due to injury concerns?
McCaffrey played a full 17 games last year and now appears to be fully healthy and ready to dominate once again in 2023. However, just because McCaffrey’s healthy now doesn’t mean there’s no upside in searching for his backup. In fact, his clean bill of health may even be providing a discount on his handcuff options right now.
The incumbent RB2 in San Francisco is Elijah Mitchell, but undrafted free agent Jordan Mason sneakily finished second on the team in rush attempts last year. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has always ridden the hot hand in his backfields, and Mason will have just as good of a shot at the RB2 role as Mitchell this offseason. Running backs high up on the depth chart in San Francisco provide great fantasy value, and Mason’s got a great shot at finding a place there in 2023.
Kevin Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Another running back roulette wheel that’s always good for a fun (or gut-wrenching) spin is New England’s. Rhamondre Stevenson is the unquestioned RB1, but the No. 2 role behind him is up for grabs now that Damien Harris is playing in Buffalo. This creates an opportunity for second-year back Kevin Harris to earn some touches from a coaching staff that’s historically liked to rotate their backs.
Kevin Harris didn’t get many opportunities his rookie season, but the competition ahead of him is lessened with the other Harris out of the picture. James Robinson and Pierre Strong will be there to compete for the RB2 role, but neither can play the same role in an offense that Harris can. Weighing in at 221 pounds, Harris is a bruiser whose physical playing style has fared well in Bill Belichick coached offenses in the past and could earn him significant playing time as early as this season.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
Everyone is raving about the Lions’ potential entering 2022, yet the news surrounding many of their starting caliber players has been quiet this offseason. With T.J. Hockenson no longer in town and Jameson Williams suspended for six games to start the season, there’s a massive opportunity for other pass-catchers in Detroit to see target volume early on in 2023.
At 33 years old, Marvin Jones’ best fantasy days are likely behind him, but he could be a primary beneficiary of those available targets. Jones’ age suppresses the cost to acquire him in fantasy, and these first six weeks alone could provide enough value to justify the cost. It’s not unreasonable to think Jones is the second leading target getter throughout the first six weeks of Detroit’s season. If he is and the offense is as high-powered as many think it will be, the value you’ll receive will easily be worth the late round pick or waiver wire claim it takes to acquire him. This may be his last hoorah, but if you’re a team in need of depth at WR/flex, even six weeks of production could be worth the cost to acquire the veteran receiver.
