NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It seems like the 2022 football season just ended, but free agency period is already almost here, with the new league year beginning next Wednesday. Teams are assessing their needs and getting ready to address them with veterans to get more clarity about what they need to target in the NFL draft.
The highlight of this year’s free agent class is probably the running back position, but there is a surprising amount of talent at the quarterback position. Some of the major players have already been taken off the market by extensions ahead of the franchise tag deadline, but there are still some players out there that can have some fantasy value next season.
Over the next few days, we’ll hit every skill position on offense with ideal landing spots this offseason. Today, let’s take a look at the 2023 quarterback free agent class and their ideal fits from a fantasy perspective.
Already Signed
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
The first shoe of free agency dropped Monday when Derek Carr signed a contract with the Saints. Carr represents at least a small upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston and should help Chris Olave continue to grow during his second season in the league. The veteran quarterback will also enjoy a significant upgrade in the offensive line and will hopefully get some additional receiving weapons to help the Saints overtake the NFC South.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
It may have taken nine seasons, but Geno Smith finally secured a big deal. The Seahawks signed him to a three-year, $105 million deal with a reported $52 million in 2023. The veteran quarterback had his best season in 2022, completing 69% of his passes for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Smith will return to a Seattle offense featuring DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at wide receiver, a solid offensive line and an ascending running back. Time will tell how legitimate his 2022 season was, but Smith will enter next season as the unquestioned starter in Seattle for at least one more season.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Daniel Jones‘ return to the Giants felt like a foregone conclusion at the end of the season, and it came to fruition when the Giants agreed to a last-minute extension before the franchise tag deadline. Jones had his best season as a professional in 2023, completing 67.3% of his passes for 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He also added 120 carries for 708 yards and seven touchdowns. If the Giants could get that result out of Jones with a total lack of perimeter weapons, then giving him more time to grow with Brian Daboll (and some legitimate receiving weapons) will help him continue to ascend.
Quarterbacks Still Available
Lamar Jackson
Ideal Fit: Atlanta Falcons
The Ravens were unable to agree with Jackson on a long-term extension before Tuesday’s franchise-tag deadline, which wasn’t surprising. What was somewhat surprising if you aren’t completely immersed in the NFL offseason was the fact that the team placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, allowing any team a chance to negotiate with the veteran. If we are imagining an ideal fit for Jackson, Atlanta would be near the top of the list. Atlanta’s offensive line had a stellar 2022, giving up just 19.0 combined sacks as a unit. Jackson would immediately be playing with the best weapons of his career in Drake London and Kyle Pitts and would be able to unlock Arthur Smith’s historically run-heavy offense. The Falcons have ample amounts of cap space and while they are likely content riding into 2023 with Desmond Ridder, Jackson would be a significant upgrade.
Aaron Rodgers
Ideal Fit: New York Jets
Yes, Aaron Rodgers isn’t technically a free agent. But at the moment, it seems like his most likely options for playing in 2023 involve not playing for the Packers, so we will cheat a little on this one. Assuming Rodgers does move, then his best fit for next season would be the New York Jets. On paper, the Jets are just a quarterback away. Rodgers would be an excellent final piece for an offense that features Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Breece Hall and an improving offensive line. Rodgers would have plenty of weapons and one of the best defenses in the league, making this a perfect fit.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Ideal Fit: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders currently have just Chase Garbers on the roster at quarterback after cutting Derek Carr, with Jarrett Stidham hitting free agency. The Raiders may have an opportunity to draft their next starter, but they may be stuck with a developmental prospect unless they are willing to move up in the draft. A reunion between Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh McDaniels would benefit all parties. Garoppolo completed 67% of his passes for 2,437 yards and 16 touchdowns with four interceptions for the 49ers after Trey Lance’s season-ending injury. The veteran quarterback could fortify the quarterback position in Las Vegas and would have excellent weapons in Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. He’d serve as a perfect bridge quarterback if the Raiders choose one early in the draft or could hold down the fort for a season if the team decides to build up the roster with their top-10 pick.
Sam Darnold
Ideal Fit: Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold’s season didn’t start the way he probably envisioned once a preseason high-ankle sprain decided his quarterback battle with Baker Mayfield. However, Darnold got an opportunity to start the final seven games of the season and played relatively well, throwing for 1,143 yards and seven touchdowns with just three interceptions. Still, the veteran quarterback’s career has been more bad than good, which will likely lead to a suppressed free-agent market. It seems likely the veteran quarterback returns to the Panthers on a short-term deal and competes with whatever rookie Carolina drafts in 2023, likely serving as a bridge quarterback as his successor develops.
Jacoby Brissett
Ideal Fit: Arizona Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett showed that he is capable of starter-level play for the Cleveland Browns throughout Deshaun Watson’s suspension, completing 64% of his passes for 2,608 yards and 12 touchdowns with six interceptions. Brissett likely doesn’t have the tools to be a top-12 quarterback in fantasy, but he can provide a solid floor in the right situation. The Arizona Cardinals make a lot of sense as his next landing spot. Kyler Murray will need time to recover from his late-season ACL injury, clearing a path for Brissett to show that his 2022 performance wasn’t a total fluke. The Cardinals hired the Browns’ (and Brissett’s) former quarterback coach Drew Petzing as their offensive coordinator. There are plenty of tea leaves leading Brissett’s next landing spot to Arizona.
Baker Mayfield
Ideal Fit: Los Angeles Rams
Baker Mayfield’s 2022 redemption tour was a wild ride. First, he massively underwhelmed in seven games for the Panthers, completing just 57% of his passes for 1,313 yards and six touchdowns with six interceptions. Eventually, Mayfield was waived and landed with the Rams after Matthew Stafford’s season-ending injury. The fifth-year quarterback showed some improved play in Los Angeles, completing 63% of his passes for 850 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions in four games without the team’s top receiving options. The best landing spot for Mayfield would be back with the Rams, especially since there seems to be some uncertainty with Stafford’s health going forward.
Andy Dalton
Ideal Fit: San Francisco 49ers
Andy Dalton found himself in New Orleans in 2022 on a one-year deal after being benched for Justin Fields in Chicago, and he took over for Jameis Winston in Week 4 of the regular season. Dalton played well as a starter, completing 66% of his passes for 2,871 yards and 18 touchdowns with just nine interceptions. Still, it seems unlikely that Dalton will secure a starting spot in 2023. The best landing spot for Dalton would be in San Francisco. Dalton could provide veteran stability behind Trey Lance in case he falters and would provide a strong option as a backup while Brock Purdy recovers from the elbow injury that he suffered in the 49ers’ playoff loss. Dalton’s accuracy would be excellent surrounded by weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
Jameis Winston
Ideal Fit: Washington Commanders
Jameis Winston was unable to build on a solid 2022 in New Orleans, losing his starting job to Dalton after suffering an injury in Week 3. It seems unlikely Winston will start the 2023 season as a team’s starter, but he can put himself in a position to be called upon early. A team that would provide an excellent opportunity for him would be the Washington Commanders. As of now, Washington seems content starting the year with 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell as the starting quarterback. However, if he struggles out of the gate, Winston would serve as an excellent alternative who could fully utilize the downfield capabilities of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel as he looks to rebuild his value in the NFL.
