NFL Usage Report for Week 10: Target Takeaways

We’re bringing back a familiar format in this week’s Usage Report. Once again we’re doing an over-time comparison of workloads to see which players have been demanding more usage, and which players appear to be trending in the wrong direction. For this week’s piece I’m using target data to evaluate trends at the wide receiver and tight end positions and explaining what these numbers can tell us heading into the second half of the season. If you want insight into the running back position, feel free to check out last week’s report.

To identify the pass catchers for this article, I compared target numbers throughout the first four weeks with target numbers from the previous five weeks and highlighted the players who experienced the most significant changes. To avoid having too many names on the list, I added a few caveats:

• Player needed to average at least 5 targets during one of the two time periods
• Percent change needed to be at least 50%
• Players whose decrease was due to injury were removed

The Positive Trend Guys Who Are Here to Stay

The first subgroup in this tier includes the players who have seen an uptick in targets largely due to impressive individual performances. A few names in this list who are worth trying to acquire are the tight ends, because it’s such a difficult position to pin down. Cade Otton has seen the largest increase in targets as the rookie has slowly but surely carved out a role in the Buccaneers offense, and his performance on the field indicates it may be justified. Both Otton and Evan Engram – who appears to be carving out a role amongst a group of underwhelming pass catchers in Jacksonville – can likely be acquired on the cheap because they aren’t exactly household names. Dallas Goedert on the other hand won’t be cheap, but he’s likely still worth trying to acquire for the right price. Goedert’s been a monster in recent weeks and he’s making a strong case to be the No. 2 option in the Eagles passing game behind A.J. Brown. 

The receivers we see meeting this same criteria are Jerry Jeudy, Darnell Mooney and Parris Campbell. Neither Campbell nor Jeudy plays in an inspiring passing offense, but at the end of the day volume remains king in fantasy football. Jeudy may be emerging as the new No. 1 in Denver, which makes him an intriguing player to kick the tires on. On the other hand, Campbell is someone who’s usage may continue, but still likely isn’t worth acquiring. The Colts are a dumpster fire right now, and I simply can’t trust anyone in that offense given all the mayhem within the organization. The lone player in this tier whose overall offense appears to be improving is Darnell Mooney. The addition of Chase Claypool at the deadline may lead to a lower target share from Mooney, but the move indicates trust in Justin Fields and a desire to improve the passing game as a whole. The Bears are sneakily starting to look like an offense that’s worth investing in, and Mooney could be a great buy candidate at a reasonable price.

The next subgroup we see is simply all of the Green Bay Packers. It’s been an extremely underwhelming group for everyone in this offense, but Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb all appear to have safe roles within this offense for at least the short-term future. Plus, they’re all players who have spent numerous years building a rapport with Aaron Rodgers. Investing in this offense, specifically the passing game, is a risky move, but Rodgers leading a second half of the season surge isn’t out of the question (even if it’s unlikely). If he does pull it off, he’ll most likely lean on his vets to get it done.

Within this tier we also see a group of players who are seeing increased usage due to a return from injury. Darius Slayton could sneakily be stepping into the WR1 role within the Giants’ new and improved offense after missing games early in the season, and he’s a player you may be able to snatch up off the waiver wire. Chris Godwin is obviously more of a household name, but he appears to be getting healthier in recent weeks and remains one of the top targets for Tom Brady in a pass-heavy Bucs offense. Last up we see Rondale Moore whose involvement moving forward will be hard to predict. Moore’s usage should remain stable as long as Marquise Brown is out of the lineup, but it’ll likely take a sizable dip when Brown returns to the field.

The Positive Trend Guys Who May Cool Off

In this tier we find a group of players who have experienced positive target trends that feel less sustainable. Both of the Chargers receivers – Michael Bandy and Joshua Palmer – find themselves on this list due to the numerous injuries Los Angeles has experienced at the position. Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are currently sidelined and don’t have clear cut return dates. Both Bandy and Palmer could provide solid spot starts in the short term, but I wouldn’t bank on this production being sustainable for the remainder of the season.

Mecole Hardman has also experienced an uptick in recent weeks, but it feels as though his involvement is due for a decrease in the coming weeks as well. The Chiefs traded for Kadarius Toney at the deadline, and his presence will likely eat away at some of Hardman’s involvement in the offense. 

Next up we have two tight ends whose usage has benefitted from injuries elsewhere on their teams. George Kittle has been great in recent weeks, but there are so many mouths to feed in San Francisco now that Christian McCaffrey is on the team. It looks like Week 10 will be the first time we see all of McCaffrey, Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk healthy at the same time. It’ll be fascinating to see how the targets shake out this week and moving forward, but I wouldn’t bet on Kittle’s 7.5 targets per game in recent weeks being sustainable. Foster Moreau on the other hand is simply on this list due to Darren Waller’s absence. He makes for an OK desperation start given the nature of the tight end position, but as soon as Waller returns to the field, Moreau’s days of fantasy relevance will be in the rear-view mirror. That said, Waller landed on IR Thursday, so that buys Moreau another month.

The Guys Who May Be Disappearing

The group of guys in this tier is fairly small, and each of them are popping up for different reasons. Hunter Renfrow appearing on this list is a bit surprising, but the Raiders offense overall has been a roller coaster. With Davante Adams now in town and Josh Jacobs playing lights out football, Renfrow simply isn’t a priority in this offense, and with each passing week we’re starting to realize Derek Carr can only support so many fantasy points for his pass catchers. Renfrow’s fantasy value appears to have taken a nosedive this season.

Speaking of nose dives in value, Elijah Moore’s usage has absolutely disappeared. After much buzz this offseason, Moore has become a complete afterthought in this Jets offense and Zach Wilson has shown no signs of being able to elevate Moore’s play for the remainder of this season. The Jets are apparently moving Moore to the slot which i suppose could boost his value down the stretch, but as it currently stands, Garrett Wilson is the only receiver in this offense who’s worth rostering.

Last up we find Greg Dortch who was a fun early season contributor who now appears to be at best the No. 4 option in Arizona’s passing game. With Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins back in the fold, plus Zach Ertz continuing to play well, Dortch is simply too far down the depth chart to continue producing for fantasy managers.

The Guys You Shouldn’t Worry About

Tyler Higbee is the lone player falling into this tier, and even he doesn’t inspire rock solid confidence. Higbee was a target monster in the early portion of the season as Matthew Stafford’s second favorite target behind Cooper Kupp. The target numbers in recent weeks are certainly cause for concern, but given how difficult the TE position is for fantasy, Higbee’s a guy you probably have to hold onto at this point. The Rams still lack a second trustworthy pass catcher, and I’d bet on Higbee at least having a respectable floor for the remainder of the season even if his ceiling is limited.