Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022. With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
Raider Nation
The Las Vegas Raiders entered the 2021 season with high expectations in the fourth year of the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Since Gruden and Mayock took over as head coach and general manager, the Raiders missed the postseason in three consecutive seasons, finishing no better than .500. They got off to a hot start to open the 2021 season, winning their first three games, including two in overtime. At 3-0, the Raiders sat on top of the AFC West with the franchise’s best start since 2002. Things began to spiral downward from there, though after emails between Gruden and Dan Snyder were leaked to the public. Gruden stepped down, leaving special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia as the interim head coach. Less than a month later, former 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs was released from the team after being charged with a DUI resulting in death.
With an already depleted roster, the most significant loss of the Raiders’ offense was their Pro Bowl tight end, Darren Waller. Waller struggled to stay on the field, dealing with ankle and knee injuries for much of the season. He had led the Raiders in receptions and receiving yards the past two seasons and played a critical role in the passing game. Without Waller, the Raiders had to alter their offense, creating opportunities for other pass catchers. Against all odds, they overcame adversity and sneaked into the playoffs for the first time since 2016. In this article, I will be looking at the impact Waller had on the Raiders’ offense.
Derek Carr, QB
In his eighth season in the NFL, Derek Carr set career-highs in completions (428), pass attempts (626) and passing yards (4,804). He was one of the most resilient quarterbacks in the league, with six walkoff victories. Carr managed to keep the Raiders team afloat but was far less efficient without his starting tight end. Waller had served as a safety valve for Carr the past two seasons and was the clear No. 1 option in the Raiders’ passing game. Without Waller, Carr averaged an interception per game while passing for 42.75 fewer yards and 0.5 fewer touchdowns. His passing volume also declined in the six games Waller missed. After leading the Raiders to a 10-7 record and a Wild Card appearance, Carr signed a three-year, $121.5 million extension to remain in Las Vegas through 2025. He is poised for a breakout campaign in 2022 with a healthy Waller and the addition of his college teammate Davante Adams.
For a full breakdown of Adams’ arrival to the Sin City, check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s “Adams Trade Rocks Las Vegas, Green Bay Offseasons.” You can also see where Carr is ranked among quarterbacks by using the Ratcliffe’s fantasy rankings.
Hunter Renfrow, WR
Hunter Renfrow had steadily improved each season since entering the league in 2019 but had yet to make a meaningful impact, failing to eclipse 700 yards in his first two seasons. The fifth-rounder out of Clemson broke out in his third season though, setting career highs across the board. In 2021, Renfrow caught 103 passes on 128 targets for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. He stepped up when the team needed him most and received a significant boost with Waller out of the lineup. The Raiders rewarded Renfrow’s efforts by signing him to a two-year extension worth up to $32 million. The slot receiver has been a focal point for new head coach Josh McDaniels’ offenses. However, it’s hard to envision Renfrow being able to replicate his 2021 campaign. He was much better in the six games Waller missed, and the addition of Adams bumps him down to the third option and the No. 2 wide receiver on the team.
Dan Fornek has identified Renfrow as a bust next season in his “Sleepers, Busts and Bets: The 2022 Las Vegas Raiders.”
Foster Moreau, TE
Foster Moreau was a hot waiver wire pickup once Waller went down but failed to live up to expectations. His production nearly doubled with Waller out of the lineup, slotted into a full-time role. However, his impact in the receiving game was minimal. Moreau averaged 4.83 targets, 3.67 receptions, 41.33 receiving yards, and 0.17 touchdowns in six games without Waller. He shouldn’t be drafted in most leagues but is one of the few tight end handcuffs in the league. Moreau is worth monitoring on the waiver wire if Waller again misses time and could have an increased role in a McDaniels offense that has utilized two-TE sets.
