NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2022. This is 100 Questions.)
In the last three years, three of the four AFC North teams have won the division. In the last 12 years, three of the four AFC North have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. And of course, the remaining team (the Browns) have never won the AFC North or made the Super Bowl.
Baltimore Ravens
As of Week 12 last year, the Ravens were 8-3, with wins over the Chiefs, Colts, Chargers and Browns on their ledger, and sat as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Six straight losses (five without their starting quarterback) later, and they were 8-9 and in last place in the AFC North. Rough way to end.
17. Does Lamar Jackson Still Have Overall QB1 Upside?
Lamar Jackson went down to injury only 10 snaps into the Ravens’ Week 14 game. Entering that game, he was averaging 22.89 fantasy points per game, behind only Josh Allen and Justin Herbert on the full season. And he did that despite only 2 rushing scores on the season (down from 7 each of the previous two years).
Best Answer: Obviously, yes. In fact, it would be a reasonable argument to say that Jackson has a better chance at being the overall QB1 than anyone but Allen. Of course, his floor is lower too, especially as he gets older and theoretically worse as a runner. Jackson is the No. 4 QB in our FTN Fantasy rankings, and he probably represents the end of the tip-top tier, which makes him a very intriguing draft pick this year.
18. What Is Rashod Bateman’s Ceiling as the Ravens’ WR1?
Rashod Bateman was a popular sleeper pick entering his rookie year, but a preseason injury and some bad touchdown luck meant he had an underwhelming 515 yards and 1 touchdown last year in 12 games played. But now, Marquise Brown is in Arizona, and the Ravens WR depth chart behind him has a combined 712 career receiving yards.
Best Answer: It’s hard to find a bigger gap between public perception and what our rankers think than Bateman — he’s WR37 by current ADP but all the way up at WR25 in our FTN Fantasy rankings. The drafting community sees a mildly disappointing rookie in a run-first offense with no track record. Our analysts see the college prospect who was so enticing a year ago replacing a 1,000-yard receiver. Bateman’s obviously no guarantee, not with the backfield getting healthy and Mark Andrews still around, but if we’re talking ceiling? It’s a mid-range WR2 or better.
19. So What About That Backfield?
This time last year, the Ravens backfield was supposed to be led by J.K. Dobbins, with Gus Edwards getting a healthy dose of carries and Justice Hill sneaking in some work as well. So if someone fell into a coma then and woke up to “Devonta Freeman, 576 yards; Latavius Murray, 501; Ty’Son Williams, 185; Le’Veon Bell, 83,” they would probably feel very Multiverse-y. Such is the world of two torn ACLs (Dobbins and Edwards) and a torn Achilles (Hill).
Best Answer: Call me a downer, but my answer is “avoid.” We aren’t likely to see Dobbins or Edwards on the field until Week 1 at the earliest, and at that point we’d be casting our lot with guys who will lose rushing work to their quarterback and to each other and will lose goal-line work to their quarterback and one of the league’s best tight ends, and that’s even before considering the arrival of Mike Davis and Tyler Badie. Dobbins would cost you a fifth-round pick. That’s far too steep a price.
Cincinnati Bengals
The last time the Bengals had won even a playoff game before last season was Jan. 6, 1991. So the fact that they won three in a row and came three points shy of taking down the whole trophy has to be one of the biggest surprises in modern playoff history. Now their task is doing it again.
20. Where Should Joe Burrow Slot in the QB Ranks?
For the year last season, Joe Burrow averaged 20.52 fantasy points per game. That’s very good! Through the first 15 weeks, that number was 18.24. That’s still good but less impressive. Burrow was going to be interesting for 2022 regardless, but his 971 yards and 8 touchdowns in Weeks 16-17, followed by a very productive postseason, shot him up the ADP (where he’s QB6) and rankings (QB5).
Best Answer: Pre-explosion Burrow performed like a slightly better Philip Rivers last year — he ran a little but not much (he didn’t top 25 rushing yards in a game last year and only did so twice before his 2020 injury) and didn’t have many spike weeks, but he also didn’t implode very often. Rivers was almost always reliable for a low-end QB1 finish but never really profiled as a top-tier QB either. Burrow’s floor and ceiling are both a bit higher than Rivers, but seeing him as the very top of the second tier of quarterbacks — ahead of or in the range of guys with more rushing upside like Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott — feels like a buy on the hype. I’m out at cost.
21. Can Ja’Marr Chase Do That Again?
Nothing makes me go, “God, were we ever so young?” right now than thinking back to the way almost everyone was to some extent or another down on Ja’Marr Chase entering last year. It’s funny now to think how quaint our drops concerns were after Chase went out and put up a historic rookie season, finishing as the WR5 and flirting with Bill Groman’s 1960 record for most receiving yards in a player’s first year.
Best Answer: To be clear from the start: Ja’Marr Chase is a deserving WR1 in drafts. There’s not really a good argument otherwise. That said, I have to balk a little at just how high he is among those WR1s. He’s currently ranked as the WR3 or 4 in just about any source, a mid- to late-first-rounder overall. At that price, a player has to hit, and hit big. Chase should hit. But so much of his success last year came on big plays (six different plays of 50-plus yards), the sort of thing that is less repeatable year-over-year. The offense has two other big-time receivers (Tyler Boyd and especially Tee Higgins). And the improvements on the offensive line and on the defensive could mean this unit doesn’t need to pass as often in 2022. A top-12 WR, almost definitely. A top-four one? That’s dicier.
22. How Should We Value Tyler Boyd?
Tyler Boyd finished third on the Bengals in receiving yards last year. Of course, that was with 828 yards, so even though he was third on his team he was 39th in the league. What the Bengals lack in depth at receiver (if one of the top three goes down, the next man up is … Trent Taylor?), they more than make up for in the top end, because Chase, Higgins and Boyd are pretty comfortably the best 1-2-3 in the league.
Best Answer: The Bengals would have to change their offensive approach pretty dramatically for Boyd to not be a screaming value in 2022. Only the Rams (1,165 snaps) had three receivers on the field more often than the Bengals’ 1,018 snaps last year (the Bills were third at 1,016 and the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Cowboys were all top seven — maybe there’s a lesson here). And Boyd had a very clear role, lining up in the slot 89.7% of the time, compared to 21.1% for Higgins and 17.2% for Chase. With the aforementioned shallow depth chart and C.J. Uzomah gone, Boyd has the most obvious role here, one that isn’t likely to go anywhere. And yet he’s not being drafted in the top 50 receivers. Take him late-ish in the draft and profit big time.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns won a playoff game in the 2020 season, the first time they had done that since 1994. They missed the playoffs last year, in part due to some notable injuries, and the team responded by trading everything that wasn’t nailed down for Deshaun Watson, a move that could turn out to be a disaster or could pay off handsomely, depending on how his potential suspension situation turns out.
(There won’t be a question about how to handle Watson in fantasy here, because … that’s not a football question, that’s a legal-ish one, and none of us really knows. Take your best guess. It’s as good as mine)
23. Is It David Njoku Breakout Season?
Two years into David Njoku’s career, he was a first-round tight end who was still only 22 years old and had 1,025 yards and 8 touchdowns on his resume. There was reason for optimism. And then he tore his ACL, and then the Browns drafted Harrison Bryant, and then they signed Austin Hooper. Now he’s 26 years old with 729 yards and 7 touchdowns the last three years. On the other hand, Hooper is gone now, and the Browns just extended Njoku for the fifth-highest average annual salary among tight ends.
Best Answer: Barring inury, Amari Cooper is definitely going to lead the 2022 Browns in targets. But after him is a jumble — third-year Donovan Peoples-Jones, rookie David Bell, bounceback RB candidate Kareem Hunt and Njoku are all going to be some level of involved. Jacoby Brissett starting during any Watson suspension wouldn’t be good for the Browns offense overall, but there’s an argument it would be for Njoku — in Brissett’s starting tenure in 2017, Jack Doyle finished as the TE7; in 2019, Doyle and Eric Ebron would have combined to be TE6. Even with the offseason hype, Njoku’s available at TE16 in drafts, and that feels like an excellent flyer to take.
24. What Does the QB Situation Mean for Amari Cooper?
Amari Cooper landed with the Browns this offseason after spending 3.5 years with the Cowboys. He only had 865 yards in 2021, ending a streak of three straight 1,000-yard seasons, but he tied his career-high with 8 touchdowns. In Dallas, he had taken a backseat to CeeDee Lamb, but in Cleveland, he’s the unquestioned No. 1.
Best Answer: We’ve seen Deshaun Watson thrive with good receivers in his career. Whenever he’s on the field, Cooper should be a solid fantasy starter. But with Brissett at quarterback? Jacoby Brissett has started 37 career games and produced only 10 games of 100 receiving yards, only three since 2017. He’s a fine backup, but that’s all he is, and any games he has to start hurt Cooper and the offense overall. That’s why Cooper’s available at WR23 in drafts … and I wouldn’t even take him there.
25. Is Kareem Hunt a Back-End Starting RB?
In Kareem Hunt’s first full year with the Browns in 2020, he put up 1,145 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns en route to an RB10 PPR finish, better even than teammate Nick Chubb. Last year, though, he played only 8 games, which is conveniently half of his 2020 total. Double his 2021 numbers and he had 1,120 yards and 10 touchdowns … or basically the exact same as the year before.
Best Answer: If we assume Hunt is healthy (every indication is that he is), what’s the argument against him? The Browns have never shown the slightest desire to give Chubb a massive workload. The offensive line is still one of the league’s best. The passing game is at best questionable. You can get Hunt in the early 30s among running backs. I’d take him 5-10 backs higher.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Thanks to the Patriots going 7-9 in 2020, the Steelers have the longest active streak of seasons .500 or above — they haven’t been below .500 since going 6-10 in 2003, not-at-all-coincidentally their last year before drafting Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger is gone now, but Mike Tomlin is still around, and as long as he’s there, the Steelers can’t be ignored.
26. How Should We Address This QB Situation?
There’s little that can rehab a quarterback’s reputation more than just being out of sight for a while. Mitch Trubisky was never a disaster in Chicago, but he was miles away from looking like a starter. But now, after a year and 8 pass attempts as the backup to Josh Allen in Buffalo, Trubisky is in Pittsburgh, and we’re hearing “Oh, he wasn’t that bad.” Are the Steelers convinced, or does their first-round pick spent on Kenny Pickett say otherwise?
Best Answer: Interestingly, our rankers disagree with the drafting public — the FTN Fantasy crew has Trubisky (QB30) just ahead of Pickett (WB32), while ADP has Pickett at QB26 and Trubisky at QB33. And maybe it makes me a fish, but I’m siding with the public here. You could argue the next Steelers’ playoff quarterback isn’t on the roster (I wouldn’t fight you much), but if he is, it’s almost certainly the first-round Heisman finalist rookie and not the sixth-year veteran who until a couple months ago had “LOL, they took him over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson” as his main claim to fame. Don’t let absence make the heart grow fonder for Trubisky.
27. Can Najee Harris Be More Efficient in Year Two?
Najee Harris put up a big fantasy season as a rookie, finishing as the PPR RB3 behind 1,200 rushing yards, 467 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He was wildly inefficient, though — he averaged only 3.9 yards per carry and only 0.79 PPR points per touch. The latter number was 35th out of 55 running backs with at least 100 touches, behind such underwhelming names as Latavius Murray, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Zack Moss. And with Trubisky or Pickett more likely than Roethlisberger to tuck and run in 2022, Harris’ role as the safety valve getting dumpoffs could be in danger.
Best Answer: So he’s likely to see fewer dumpoff passes to pad his PPR total. The offensive line might be better, but it’s still only 23rd in our FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings. And there are already reports he’ll work less in 2022. Harris is going to be a fantasy starter, but is he worthy of his current RB5 slot in ADP? I would argue no, and I would do it loudly.
28. Can Chase Claypool Rebound from a Sophomore Slump?
Chase Claypool had a very nice debut in 2020, finishing as the WR23 in PPR leagues. He fell off in his second year, though, falling to WR37. Which is the real Claypool?
Best Answer: Well, the first stop in answering this question is to establish what we’re talking about here. Because one thing aside, Claypool actually didn’t change much from one year to the next. In 2020, he had 62 receptions on 109 targets for 873 yards. In 2021, that was 59 on 105 for 860. For all intents and purposes, he was an identical receiver. The difference? In 2020, he scored 11 touchdowns (9 receiving, 2 rushing); in 2021, that number was only 2. Touchdowns are the least predictable part of scoring; Claypool was the same guy. Of course, that guy was only so-so for fantasy, and now there’s Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth to deal with, plus 2022 draftees George Pickens and Calvin Austin. Claypool’s fallen to WR42 in drafts. But that feels about right. Don’t reach.
