PrizePicks picks for NFL Week 4

We move onto Week 4 and there are some really interesting props to choose from over at PrizePicks. This is the toughest week yet, however, as a handful of these props are extremely close.

If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
• Three-pick entry pays 5x
• Four-pick entry pays 10x

Let’s look at Week 4, shall we?

Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings (@ HOU)

Projected score: 20 points; the pick: OVER

Cook enjoyed his best game of the young season last week, rushing for 181 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. I expect another great performance for him against the Texans. This game could be pretty high-scoring, as the Vikings and Texans rank first and second in points per drive allowed this season at 3.16 and 3.14, respectively. Meanwhile, Houston’s run defense has been very bad this season, as teams are running the football 52.4% of the time against them, the highest rate in the NFL. And 48.5% of the yardage surrendered by this defense has come via the run, also the highest rate in football. This all sets up very nicely for Cook and a Vikings offense that is still calling run at a top-10 rate in football, while just over 43% of their yardage has come on the ground, the fourth-highest mark in the league.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns (@ DAL)

Projected score: 15 points; the pick: OVER

Instilling any kind of faith in this Cleveland passing game is a bit scary, but I do think this is a good spot for Beckham. The Browns clearly want to give their elite running back tandem 35 carries, but I don’t think this game will allow that. The Cowboys should put up points here, forcing Cleveland to throw the football. That might be bad for the Browns, but it would be good for Beckham’s numbers. Dallas has been absolutely dreadful against wide receivers this season, but especially wideouts lined up on the left side of the formation, coughing up 14.1 fantasy points per game to such receivers, seventh-most in the league. The Cowboys have also already let four different receivers to reach the 100-yard mark and Beckham is top-seven in the league with a healthy 28.2% target share. Beckham should see coverage from Daryl Worley, who has allowed 2.70 fantasy points per target so far this season.

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ CIN)

Projected score: 16.5 points; the pick: OVER

Robinson has been one of the best stories of the young season. The undrafted free agent has taken over the Jaguars backfield and is a top-15 running back in fantasy until further notice. So far this season, Robinson has handled 78% of Jacksonville’s non-quarterback rushes, while averaging a strong 17.6 touches per game. He is also one of just two qualified running backs to see every one of their team’s carries from inside the five-yard line. Robinson has been efficient, averaging 6.4 yards per touch, a top-10 mark in the league to this point. He reminds me of Alfred Morris, who was very productive in fantasy and now Robinson gets another strong matchup against the Bengals, who are allowing 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game on the season, good for the third-most in football.

Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers (vs. ARZ)

Projected score: 14.5 points; the pick: UNDER

Anderson has been extremely productive through his first three games with the Panthers, but I’m expecting him to slow down here. This is a D.J. Moore game if I’ve ever seen one, so I’m expecting the success Carolina has in the passing game to come from Moore. Arizona has been a bottom-five team against receivers aligned on the left side of the formation but are coughing up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers on the right side (5.0). Why? It is simple. All-Pro corner Patrick Peterson plays on the left side of the field, which would match him up with Anderson, who is operating on the right side 40% of the time. Peterson can get beat from time to time but he remains a very good corner in this league and with this matchup favoring Moore, I expect Anderson’s numbers to suffer a bit.