Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Dan Fornek and Daniel Kelley continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts, and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Minnesota Vikings.
Dan and Daniel will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Fornek: K.J. Osborn
Kelley: Kirk Cousins
Biggest Bust
Fornek: Adam Thielen
Kelley: Adam Thielen
Boldest Bet
Fornek: Irv Smith Finishes as a Top-8 Tight End
Kelley: Irv Smith Finishes as a Top-5 PPR TE
The Explanation
Sleepers
Fornek: K.J. Osborn
K.J. Osborn went from a 2020 rookie season where he played zero offensive snaps to a 2021 sophomore season that saw him finish third on the Vikings in receiving touchdowns (7). Osborn will head into the season as the team’s third receiver behind Justin Jefferson and a healthy Adam Thielen, but there should still be plenty of opportunities for him to carve out a productive role as a deep threat for the Vikings this season. Osborn finished second on the team in yards per reception in 2021 (13.1) and operated out of the slot more than any other wide receiver on the team (292 slot snaps). There isn’t much competition behind Osborn in the Vikings’ receiving corps, so any injury would thrust him into a bigger role like last season.
Kelley: Kirk Cousins
No quarterback has been a top-12 fantasy finisher in each of the last seven years. Three have done it in six of seven years — Russell Wilson (missing only 2021), Aaron Rodgers (missing only 2017) and Kirk Cousins, who finished QB16 in 2019 but has been 11th or better every year he’s been a starter otherwise. Admittedly, Cousins lacks the ceiling of those other guys — he’s been QB11 or QB12 three of the last four years — but then you’re paying a far lower price to acquire Cousins than the other options as well. If you go skill position early, you can get a safe-but-unspectacular QB1 later in the draft, and sometimes that’s all you need.
Busts
Fornek: Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen has continued to be Kirk Cousins’ preferred option in the red zone, amassing 24 touchdowns in the last two seasons. However, Thielen will be 32 years old when the 2022 season begins and has struggled to stay healthy recently. The eight-year veteran hasn’t played a full season since 2018. Thielen has also seen his yards per reception decrease in each of the last three seasons, moving to more of an intermediate weapon with the emergence of Justin Jefferson. Thielen got most of his production last season from his ability to separate in the red zone, but that production was boosted thanks to a preseason injury to Irv Smith. In his last two seasons, Thielen is averaging a touchdown on every 8.6 receptions, which is a completely unsustainable pace. Regression to an average touchdown rate (or another injury) would make it very difficult for Thielen to pay off as a mid-round WR option.
Kelley: Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen turns 32 in August, an age by which all but the superstar-est of receivers are usually nearing the end of their runs. He’s missed 11 games the last three years and been limited in several others. His yards per target have fallen every year since 2016 to a career-low 7.64 in 2021 (per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats); his yards per reception (10.84) were also a career low. Of course, his fantasy prowess has been buoyed by his touchdown success the last two years, scoring a combined 24 touchdowns on 203 targets in 2020-2021 — min. 100 targets, only Mike Evans’ 12.1% rate is better than Thielen’s 11.8%, and they’re the only wide receivers over 10.5%. The problem is that Thielen had the dedicated end-zone role in the Minnesota offense in 2020, getting 20 of the team’s 39 end-zone targets. But in 2021 that flipped, with Thielen getting only 8 end-zone targets and Justin Jefferson notching 17 of 41. In 2020, Thielen’s touchdown prowess made sense. In 2021, it seems like it was flukier. That’s a recipe for a surprise flop in 2022.
Bets
Fornek: Irv Smith Finishes as a Top-8 Tight End
A meniscus injury at the end of preseason cost Irv Smith his third season in the league, but he should be in a good position heading into 2022. During his first two years in the league, Smith averaged 45 targets, 33 receptions, 338 yards and 3.5 touchdowns per season. However, all of that production came from splitting reps with Kyle Rudolph. Last year’s tight end, Tyler Conklin caught 61 of 87 targets for 593 yards and three touchdowns. Conklin finished the season with 8.1 fantasy points per game, good for 19th most among the tight end position. Not only is Rudolph gone, but Conklin is as well, leaving Smith as the team’s only tight end of consequence. Smith will likely finish third on the team in targets and could very easily emerge as their most effective red-zone target.
The fourth-year tight end will also benefit from the addition of Kevin O’Connell as head coach. O’Connell’s Rams team targeted tight end Tyler Higbee an average of 72.5 times per season the last two years. Smith is a more athletic version of Higbee and could greatly benefit from that role in this system. Last year, Dallas Goedert was fantasy’s TE8, averaging 11.0 points per game. Given the lack of competition and a likely red zone role, Smith will have a shot to break into the top eight in his first full year as a starter.
Kelley: Irv Smith Finishes as a Top-5 PPR TE
The good part of two people writing these without collaborating on their picks is that you get a variety of opinions. The bad part is sometimes those opinions overlap, with Mr. Fornek above going for largely the same bet here. But who cares — Irv Smith was a popular breakout pick at TE a year ago, before a torn meniscus cost him his entire season. Now, he’s reportedly healthy, and Tyler Conklin is on the Jets, leaving a largely empty TE depth chart after Smith. Everything we liked about him a year ago still holds — per the FTN Fantasy splits tool, Smith played five games in 2019-2020 without Kyle Rudolph, and in those games, his numbers improved across the board — he went from averaging 5.7 PPR points per game to 10.7, and that was as a first- and second-year tight end. Give him a bit of the aging Thielen’s work, and Smith should be able to slide into the back end of the TE1s with ease. Give him even a little extra touchdown luck, and he could be the No. 2 target in this offense and an elite fantasy producer.
