The Fantasy Options Most Helped by Their Division in 2021

The NFL schedule changes every season. But the constant is a team’s intradivisional games. If you’re the Colts, you might face the Chiefs one season and the Jets the next, but you know you’re playing two games each against the Jaguars, Titans and Texans. It’s a small piece of knowledge, but it’s one we can dive in on in fantasy football.

In other words, you can look at how players perform in interdivisional games (which change every year) against how they perform against their division foes (which, pending a transaction, does not) and look for the key takeaways. This is a piece of information. It’s not conclusive, but it’s something we can look at and decide if there is anything to take away from it.

Today, I’m looking at the players who fared the best inside their division compared to outside it — in other words, the players whose divisions helped them the most in fantasy last year. Saturday, we took a look at the players whose divisions hurt them the most.

(All scoring PPR.)

Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers

Outside the division: 6.6 PPR points per game
Inside the division: 19.1
Increase: +188.1%

More than anything, this is probably the result of Allen Lazard coming on stronger later in the season and that happening to coincide with the bulk of the Packers’ NFC North schedule. But Lazard’s three biggest fantasy games of the season, and 5 of his 8 touchdowns on the season, came in NFC North matchups. He scored double-digit PPR points six times, including all four NFC North matchups he appeared in (he missed the Lions game in Week 2 and the Vikings game in Week 11). Lazard is a restricted free agent this offseason, and between his NFC North performances and the likelihood of Marquez Valdes-Scantling playing elsewhere in 2022, he probably hopes the Packers retain him.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Outside the division: 11.6
Inside the division: 25.6
Increase: +120.4%

For the season, Derrick Henry averaged 24.2 PPR points per game. Jonathan Taylor averaged 22.0. On the other side, Devin Singletary and J.D. McKissic each averaged 11.6. So when James Conner played outside the NFC West, he was a borderline flex RB. When he played inside the division, he as a superstar. Conner topped 20 points in a game five times in 2021, and all five came against divisional opponents, including a 40.3-point game against the 49ers in Week 9 and a 33.5-point one in Week 14 against the Rams. (And yes, Chase Edmonds missed some of those games, but he was also active for three of them.) You’d have to think that’s going to factor into his eventual free agent decision at least a little.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

Outside the division: 11.8
Inside the division: 24.9
Increase: +111.7%

Aaron Jones’ worst game against an NFC North opponent last year featured 106 scrimmage yards (8 carries, 5 receptions) against the Vikings in Week 17. He scored 10 touchdowns on the season, with 7 coming in divisional games, including 4 against the Lions in a 41.5-point Week 2. With the offensive core returning for Green Bay in 2022, Jones’ stock should remain high, and getting to face this division six times can only help.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Outside the division: 12.5
Inside the division: 23.5
Increase: +87.4%

A big part of the difference for Tee Higgins between games inside and outside the AFC North is just his Week 16 game against the Ravens, when he put up 21 receptions for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns for a cool 43.4 PPR points. Remove that game, and he was still better in divisional games than otherwise, but not by nearly as much. That said, the Bengals targeted Higgins 11.0 times per game in divisional games, compared to 6.6 targets per game outside the division, while Tyler Boyd’s target average fell from 6.5 outside the division to 4.0 inside it. (Ja’Marr Chase’s targets held relatively steady.) The team thought Higgins was the way to exploit their divisional opponents, not the more underneath Boyd.

Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots

Outside the division: 10.8
Inside the division: 18.9
Increase: +74.9%

Number of times Damien Harris put up under 10 PPR points outside the AFC East: four in nine games. Number of times he put up under 10 inside the AFC East: zero in six games. Only 8 of his 15 rushing touchdowns came inside the division, but he averaged 53.3 yards from scrimmage outside the division compared to 97.5 inside it. You like that, especially with the Jets and Dolphins still being the Jets and Dolphins and the Patriots apparently having the Bills’ number on the ground. On the other hand, Rhamondre Stevenson should see his role increase in 2022, and the team could re-sign James White and/or Brandon Bolden. So we’ll see if the divisional advantage really matters after free agency shakes out.