Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This article will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Jordan Poole, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors (@ DEN)
In 237.5 minutes this season with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green off the court, Jordan Poole has posted a 33.9% usage rate
Coming in as arguably the most popular player on the slate, Poole’s value at $5,300 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel is undeniable. He’s added a 27.2% assist rate and has averaged 42.9 DraftKings points per-36-minutes with the aforementioned players off of the floor this season. In the one previous game without them, Poole posted 31 raw points on 24 field-goal attempts. This is a sheer volume play with usage metrics that dwarf anyone else in his price range. Eat the chalk and differentiate elsewhere.
Dejounte Murray, PG, San Antonio Spurs (vs. LAL)
Dejounte Murray has posted a 28.4% usage rate, 43.6% assist rate and 11.3% rebounding rate since the trade deadline
Murray’s stellar play was taken to yet another level with the departure of Derrick White, as he’s averaged 25.8 points, 10.6 assists and 8.4 rebounds in his eight games since the trade. He’s shot 51% on nearly 20 attempts per game while getting to the free-throw line over five times per game. Nobody is capable of slowing down the two-way star, and the Lakers are no exception. On the season, they rank 22nd or worse against all five of Murray’s player archetypes, per advanced DvP – scorer (22nd), primary ball-handler (29th), dimer (30th), crafty finisher (30th), superstar (30th). With Lonnie Walker and Devin Vassell listed as doubtful, there’s only more incremental usage for Murray to soak up.
Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors (@ DEN)
In 233.4 minutes without the aforementioned Warriors on the floor this season, Jonathan Kuminga has posted the second-highest usage rate (27.3%) on the team
So many of the Warriors project to be chalky on this slate, and Kuminga is one of them. With that said, similar to Poole, this is another piece I want to eat. Kuminga has averaged over a fantasy point-per-minute (1.05) in this scenario, posting 24.37 points, 6.32 rebounds and 2.01 assists per-36-minutes. With so much guard value on the slate, Kuminga operates as an elite spend-down at the power forward position.
De’Aaron Fox, PG, Sacramento Kings (vs. NYK)
Since February 8 (when Tyrese Haliburton was traded), De’Aaron Fox has averaged 28.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game (11 total games)
Fox has looked like an absolute superstar, as he’s shot nearly 52% from the field on over 21 attempts per game while shooting nearly 37% from three. Just about every metric across the board is up for Fox, as he’s posted a team-high 29% usage rate, 26% assist rate while actually slowing his game down. Over this 11-game span, he’s played at a pace of 103.19 possessions per game, 11th on the Kings. This has proven to be a successful transition (no pun intended) for Fox, as he’s been able to capitalize on getting the right shot. The Knicks have gotten smoked by opposing guards this season (illustrated by aDvP above), making this a great spot to target Fox at lower ownership.
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. POR)
With both D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards off the floor this season, Karl-Anthony Towns has posted 1.53 DraftKings points per minute
Towns has been a mammoth with these two off the court, posting team-highs in usage (31.4%), assist rate (26.6%) and rebounding rate (18.9%). With Edwards listed as doubtful and Russell being a mid-day downgrade to questionable, we may get 30-plus minutes of Towns without those two on the court. With a lot of the attention likely going to Malik Beasley (and rightfully so), Towns is a phenomenal tournament play against a sieve of a defense. And with all the value on the slate, he’s easy to fit alongside another stud.
