College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 15.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
You can argue Kyler Murray hasn’t had a true ceiling game since Week 2 (38.1 DraftKings points against Minnesota), but he has come awfully close nearly every week. Week 13 could have been a ceiling shot, as he managed to score over 30 points despite passing the ball only 15 times. Per our splits tool, Murray averages 19% more fantasy points per game when favored by at least one TD (the Cardinals are 2-TD favorites this week). The Lions are middle-of-the-pack in overall fantasy points allowed to QBs due to the fact teams rush often against them to salt the clock, but there’s plenty of evidence their pass D is not good — starting with the fact they allow 8.2 yards per attempt against, second-most in the NFL. Additionally, the only two rushing QBs to go against the Lions this year found success on the ground (Lamar Jackson 58 yards on 7 attempts, Jalen Hurts 71 yards on 7 attempts).
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell’s usage over the last month has been elite. His touch totals over the last three: 27, 32, 25. Now he draws a Falcons defense that ranks bottom-10 in fantasy pints allowed to RBs with the 49ers serving at 9.5-point home favorites. Mitchell has been up across the board when favored this year, per our NFL Splits Tool.
This is basically the exact recipe for a slate-breaking RB: Three-down back with 30-touch upside as a massive home favorite against a bottom-10 defense.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
After a slowish (by his standards) first half of the season, Davante Adams is finally kicking it into his usual high gear. It helps that the Packers are finally targeting him in the end zone again, something that worked so well in 2020 but was seemingly abandoned for the first few months of 2021:
Adams rolls into Week 15 with the second-best individual WR-CB matchup matchup of the week and on a serious hot streak. His last three games: 7-115-2, 8-104-0 and 10-121-2.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The deep-ball connection between Tyler Lockett and Russell Wilson has been strong for the last month. In three of his last four games, Lockett has averaged over 28 yards per receptions and has a catch of at least 45 yards in three of those games as well.
Lockett went 5-142-1 last week, which is a ceiling game for most but only 70% of the way there for Lockett. He has the fifth-best individual WR-CB matchup of the week. His 517 air yards over the last month is second-best in the league (he’s fourth-best on the year) and his 19.15-yard average depth of target is by far the most in the league over the last four games:
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Is this point-chasing? If it was someone other than George Kittle in his current situation, the answer would be yes. But what we’re seeing might be the new normal for Kittle for the rest of 2021. He has dropped 42.6 and 37.1 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks. He set a season-high with 9 receptions in Week 13 then topped it with 13 catches last week. The turning point for Kittle was the reduced passing workload for Deebo Samuel, who has caught just 1 pass in three straight games. As Samuel gets more work as a rusher and less as a receiver, Kittle is the one picking up all of the slack.
